Category: 🏀 Sport

Takes & analyses to make sports better
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Be Careful What You Swish For

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Acts

I wonder if more NBA rules created to discourage rebuilding and tanking results in "perverse incentives", and that reversing course to completely remove both the draft lottery and play-in tournament might be the simplest, best, or most natural order.

Draft

  • Flagg 1 (12th Last)
  • Risacher 1 (10th Last)
  • Wemby 1, Harper 2, Castle 4
  • Cade 1, Ausar 5, Ivey 5
  • Tatum 3, Brown 3, Smart 6
  • Wade 5, *James 1, *Bosh 4
  • Jordan 3, Pippen 5, Grant 10
  • Magic 1, Worthy 1, *Kareem 1

While the current NBA rule changes with the draft lottery and play-in tournament, as well as any further flattening of the draft lottery odds or other rule changes, are an attempt to combat a team rebuilding with homegrown talent and tanking or losing some games some years, it's possible the effects of these changes are worse and with other unexpected and negative consequences and natural reactions by teams that we have seen. It may be that great teams of the present and past had often naturally rebuilt to get one or two high draft picks or the possibility of a star player, and then they would go on to win or try to win for many years, including many of the top ranked, successful, and championship level teams of the past.

Continued... >

Raptors Need PG Upgrade?

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

Hey Raptors Report.

Thanks a lot for replying to me and others, and sharing your thoughts and evaluation on Quickley and everything else, it's so enjoyable to listen to such an intelligent and well researched person like you talk about Raptors and basketball! Again, I admit I didn't even watch this particular video so I'm not debating specific things you said in it, and for instance upgrading to prime Curry straight up from Quickley might be worth it.

While I'm nitpicking words a bit, one thing I have learned to try and do is to not assume what others are thinking or that everyone sees things the same as I do or the current consensus does. As an example, there may be people that might not even recognize Quickley as struggling much this year, and might evaluate the situation differently. Because of adding Ingram he is the 4th option on the team and is playing unselfish, he's shooting a career high 52% 2PT, a respectable 36% 3PT the same as LaMelo Ball, an excellent and career high 3.7/1 AST/TO, a career high 1.3 STL, he plays much harder on defense and makes less money than many PG who one might consider upgrades, and he has a solid 17 PPG, which is lower because of him being the 4th option and not taking way more shots or steal the ball away from RJ more like VanVleet would have done.

Continued... >

Turn Gradey Into Slim Shady

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

Here's my idea to help turn Gradey into his own version of Slim Shady, with him coming back strong in a different gear after starting off wrong in a difficult year.

  • I like how Darko Rajakovic seems to talk quite a bit about and appears to work very diligently to always develop all facets of all player's games constantly, and I'm sure that strategy and focus has payed huge dividends in many players reaching their long-term potential.
  • I wonder if a bit more balance towards simplification of a player's role might be good at certain times or years. Mainly, I wonder if having Gradey Dick simplify his game to focus on shooting for the next 1.5 seasons might make sense now, with less dribbling, scoring, passing.

Predictions For NBA Standings 2025-26

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

Here are my predictions for the 2025-2026 NBA standings, ranked by western and eastern conferences. I think the western conference in particular may be as hard to predict as ever this year.

Western Conference

  • 1 - Oklahoma City Thunder
  • 2 - Denver Nuggets
  • 3 - Los Angeles Clippers
  • 4 - Memphis Grizzlies
  • 5 - Dallas Mavericks
  • 6 - Minnesota Timberwolves
  • ----
  • 7 - Houston Rockets
  • 8 - Phoenix Suns
  • 9 - San Antonio Spurs
  • 10 - Golden State Warriors
  • ----
  • 11 - New Orleans Pelicans
  • 12 - Los Angeles Lakers
  • 13 - Sacramento Kings
  • 14 - Portland Trail Blazers
  • 15 - Utah Jazz

Eastern Conference

  • 1 - Cleveland Cavaliers
  • 2 - New York Knicks
  • 3 - Milwaukee Bucks
  • 4 - Toronto Raptors
  • 5 - Philadelphia 76ers
  • 6 - Boston Celtics
  • ----
  • 7 - Indiana Pacers
  • 8 - Miami Heat
  • 9 - Orlando Magic
  • 10 - Charlotte Hornets
  • ----
  • 11 - Atlanta Hawks
  • 12 - Detroit Pistons
  • 13 - Chicago Bulls
  • 14 - Washington Wizards
  • 15 - Brooklyn Nets

Raptors Lineup And Depth Chart 2025

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

Here's the lineup and depth chart that I think the Raptors should go with for the start of the 2025-26 season, given the current roster.

Lineup

  • PG - Quickley - Walter - Shead
  • SG - Dick - Agbaji - Battle - Temple
  • SF - Ingram - Barrett - Roddy/Lawson
  • PF - Barnes - Murray - Mogbo
  • C - Poeltl - Chomche - Mamukelashvili
  • 2W - Chomche, Martin, Hepburn

Notes

  • Dick in starting lineup for catch-and-shoot 3PTs
  • Barrett on the bench for ball handling and scoring
  • Walter on the bench for more shooting over Shead
  • Chomche on the bench for defense and development
  • Barnes plays some small ball 5 for shooting, often to finish
  • Murray/Barnes do ball handling for bench that guards lack

New Crew Value - 2025 Rebuild vs. 2013 Rebuild

  • PG - Quickley 26 > Lowry 27 / Walter 20 > Vazquez 28
  • SG - Dick 21 > Ross 22 / Agbaji 25 > Salmons 34
  • SF - Ingram 27 = DeRozan 24 / Barrett 25 >> Patterson 24
  • PF - Barnes 24 >> Johnson 26 / Murray 20 >> Hansbrough 28
  • C - Poeltl 29 < Valanciunas 21 / Chomche 19 >> Hayes 30
  • Much more youth and potential to grow better into future
  • Top young draft picks already in place over decent veterans
  • Team is young so will need/play veterans more if playoffs

NBA Draft Picks 2025

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Ranks

Here are the potential draft picks and players that I like for the 2025 NBA draft.

May 15, 2025 - Version 1.0

Primary - Great, draft for my team

  • 1st - Flagg, Bailey, Bryant, Wolf, Fleming
  • 2nd - Coward, Shulga, S. James

Secondary - Great, draft for some team

  • 1st - Jakucionis, Essengue, Gonzalez, Clifford
  • 2nd - Markovic, Lanier, Yang

June 19, 2025 - Version 2.0

Primary - Great, draft for my team

  • 1st - Flagg, Bryant, Coward, Fleming, Wolf
  • 2nd - Shulga, S. James, Tonje

Secondary - Great, draft for some team

  • 1st - Bailey, Jakucionis, Gonzalez, Essengue, Clifford
  • 2nd - Lanier, Markovic, Yang

Raptors Trade, Draft, And Strategy 2025

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

Here's one potential trade and draft idea for the Raptors this offseason, which might be one way to help accomplish a possible big picture overall strategy and lineup configuration that is also suggested and outlined.

May 22, 2025 - Original

Rockets

  • Poeltl
  • Agbaji
  • Shead
  • Mogbo

Raptors

  • 10th Pick - 2025
  • J. Smith
  • Sheppard
  • 2nd Round - 2026 & 2027

Raptors Draft

  • 9th - Bryant or Coward
  • 10th - Wolf or Fleming
  • 39th - Shulga or S. James, Tonje or Lanier

Raptors Free Agent

  • Horford (3PT + FT + Experience)
  • Lopez (3PT + FT + Experience)
  • T. Bryant (3PT + FT + Young)
  • Looney for now (Rebounding + Pass + Exp)
  • Capela for now (Rebounding + Screen + Exp)
  • Drummond for now (Rebounding + Size + Exp)

Continued... >

Value Young And Priming Players

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Acts

Hey Jacob.

Great Evaluation And Analysis

  • I think you really do a great job of evaluating players and coming up with different analysis or ideas for teams or players, to understand the value of players or make possible changes and adjustments.
  • It's really fun to hear your thoughts on players or trades, and in particular I think your draft prospect bullet point breakdowns are an excellent example of that.
  • In terms of evaluating players, one thing I think that I look at extremely differently than you is ages of players, and in particular young players who might be truly valuable or even untouchable, and also when players are going to be entering or in their prime.

Potential Of Young Players

  • Lowry was 26, about 3 years older than Barnes is now, when he was traded to the Raptors and he wasn't that great of a player yet, being traded for a future first round pick.
  • Masai didn't want to include the young Siakam or Anunoby in the Kawhi trade, and they were basically nothings on offense at about age 23 and 21 after each averaged about 7 points the previous year.
  • Josh Giddey is still just 22 and he already shot 38% 3PT on 4 3PA this year while Caruso shot 35% on 3 3PA.
  • James Harden was about 23 and playing on the bench for OKC the previous year when he was traded to Houston.
  • Shai was a bit younger at about 21 when he was traded away after his 10 PPG rookie year along with a 20 PPG Danilo Gallinari and about 5 first round picks for a 28 year old Paul George.
  • Barnes is just 23, already won rookie of the year, and has already been an All-Star, so he'll just be entering his age 24 season next year!

Continued... >

Then Play Flagg At Center

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

If the Raptors end up getting Cooper Flagg in the NBA draft and keep Poeltl, then I think they should move Poeltl to the bench and start Flagg or Barnes at center, with the goal of getting more shooting into both the starting lineup and the bench.

My Lineup

  • Quickley, Agbaji, Ingram, Barnes, Flagg
  • Walter, Barrett, Dick, Boucher, Poeltl

Notes

  • More shooting starting, and Boucher to win
  • RJ or Poeltl play more than Agbaji most games
  • Barrett to bench for handling and scoring
  • Battle is the 11th guy for more shooting

Raptors Path Forward 2024

Raptors Path Forward 2024

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Acts

Here's a plan for the Raptors going forward, focused on getting all players who are the best 3PT shooters, deprioritizing great athletic defenders unless they'll shoot great too, and leave passing for the best passers on the team to setup 3PT shooters.

Strategy

TLDR - Shooting Yes, Defense Less, Passing Bests

  • Build the team around everyone being a great shooter except for Barnes and Chomche
  • So, focus less on defense, with defense being best possible only IF they can shoot great
  • Put ball in hands of natural best passers like Barnes/Quickley, Mitchell/Mogbo for now
  • So, focus less on everyone needing to pass in future, less turnovers, and 3PT specialists
  • Keep PG/SG/SF/PF/C players who can be 40% 3PT shooters, defense 2nd skill hopefully
  • Keep PF/C players who can be 35% 3PT shooters, defense 2nd skill important for C

Plan

TLDR - Lose This Year, Trade Poor Shooters, Get Great Shooters

  • Lose for 1 year and get high 2025 draft pick
  • Trade veterans and all poor shooters for young players/picks who are best shooters
  • Play the young players more so you lose this year
  • Make everyone take catch and shoot 3s, even Mitchell/Mogbo/Chomche/etc.
  • Focus on getting the best young 3PT shooters
  • Get best defense you can while having everyone shoot, and only great passers pass
  • 2024 Raptors Draft Trade Idea

Continued... >

Nickname Scottie Barnes "Lion"

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

I think "Lion" or "The Lion" would be a great nickname for Scottie Barnes.

  • He attacks at close range but can surprise you from distance
  • He is fast and can glide across the court at high speeds
  • He has the size and skills to be a King Of The Jungle
  • He works together with a coalition and likes to Roarrrr
  • He protects the other players and people that are in his team
  • The nickname isn't too well-known or used by someone else

Raptors Rebuilding Too Quickley?

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

I wonder if Raptors may be too good to get high 2025 pick, especially with Poeltl/Brown/Boucher. Mitchell/Agbaji/Vezenkov/Olynyk are older. Mogbo/Shead/Carlson are older prospects who can play now. Dick/Walter are young but can shoot. Barnes/Quickley/Barrett are poised to breakout.

  • Jordan 3, Pippen 5, Grant 10, *Harper 8
  • Robinson 1, Elliott 3, Duncan 1
  • Tatum 3, Brown 3, Smart 6, *Irving 1
  • DeRozan 8, Valanciunas 5, Ross 8
  • Curry 7, Thompson 11, Barnes 7, *Bogut 1
  • Barnes 4, ???, ???, *Barrett 3

Predictions For NBA Standings 2023-24

🏀 Sport • 📁 Sport Takes

Here are my predictions for the 2023-2024 NBA standings, ranked by western and eastern conferences.

Western Conference

  • 1 - Phoenix Suns
  • 2 - Denver Nuggets
  • 3 - Golden State Warriors
  • 4 - New Orleans Pelicans
  • 5 - Oklahoma City Thunder
  • 6 - Sacramento Kings
  • ----
  • 7 - Los Angeles Clippers
  • 8 - Dallas Mavericks
  • 9 - Minnesota Timberwolves
  • 10 - Houston Rockets
  • ----
  • 11 - Los Angeles Lakers
  • 12 - Portland Trail Blazers
  • 13 - Memphis Grizzlies
  • 14 - San Antonio Spurs
  • 15 - Utah Jazz

Eastern Conference

  • 1 - Boston Celtics
  • 2 - Milwaukee Bucks
  • 3 - Philadelphia 76ers
  • 4 - Toronto Raptors
  • 5 - Cleveland Cavaliers
  • 6 - Miami Heat
  • ----
  • 7 - Indiana Pacers
  • 8 - Atlanta Hawks
  • 9 - Brooklyn Nets
  • 10 - New York Knicks
  • ----
  • 11 - Chicago Bulls
  • 12 - Detroit Pistons
  • 13 - Orlando Magic
  • 14 - Charlotte Hornets
  • 15 - Washington Wizards