I wonder if more NBA rules created to discourage rebuilding and tanking results in "perverse incentives", and that reversing course to completely remove both the draft lottery and play-in tournament might be the simplest, best, or most natural order.
Draft
- Flagg 1 (12th Last)
- Risacher 1 (10th Last)
- Wemby 1, Harper 2, Castle 4
- Cade 1, Ausar 5, Ivey 5
- Tatum 3, Brown 3, Smart 6
- Wade 5, *James 1, *Bosh 4
- Jordan 3, Pippen 5, Grant 10
- Magic 1, Worthy 1, *Kareem 1
While the current NBA rule changes with the draft lottery and play-in tournament, as well as any further flattening of the draft lottery odds or other rule changes, are an attempt to combat a team rebuilding with homegrown talent and tanking or losing some games some years, it's possible the effects of these changes are worse and with other unexpected and negative consequences and natural reactions by teams that we have seen. It may be that great teams of the present and past had often naturally rebuilt to get one or two high draft picks or the possibility of a star player, and then they would go on to win or try to win for many years, including many of the top ranked, successful, and championship level teams of the past.
When you reward higher ranking and mid-level teams with an opportunity to both make the playoffs with the play-in tournament going to 10 teams and only 6 teams making it for sure, or get the number 1 pick in the draft with the randomized lottery draft odds, you may have incentivized even those mid-level teams to want to lose games, sit top players, trade franchise players like Doncic, miss the playoffs or play-in tournament on purpose, or make other decisions if they could get a #1 or top pick, or improve their odds for themselves by finishing 14th, or 12th, or 10th, or 8th last in the standings. If you take this even further and create more rules, other unforeseen perverse incentives may result, such as the current rich teams getting even richer or teams not having an opportunity to rebuild naturally, or other unforeseen future consequences from any new rules creating potentially perverse incentives.
Instead, before you had the possibly unfair lottery draft and the possibly unfair play-in tournament, the very bottom teams might try to lose some games to improve their draft position and likelihood of getting a great player and that has always naturally been the case, and that doesn't appear to have changed. Also, it was clear that the teams with the best records over 82 games made the playoffs and teams knew if they made the top 8 they were a playoff team, instead of a much worse team who could have even more than 10 more losses than another team. On top of this, the mid-level teams who just missed the playoffs or who were trying to get better weren't as obsessed at losing some games because the odds of getting a franchise player with the 8th pick isn't much better than the 10th pick, like is the case if you could possibly get the 1st, 3rd, or 5th pick.
Furthermore, I have to add that I suspect it's quite possible that the NBA and its executives and owners might be particularly more upset today in 2026 at teams who might try to lose some games when they are at the bottom of the league or aren't a playoff team, which has likely been going on forever and with successful results since the 1950s, because of their recent decision to make money from gambling and betting, and the consequences lower and mid-level teams trying to lose some games or sit out players has for that. While a separate topic, I will briefly say that I at least hope and meditate for the current and future health and wellbeing of all of the referees, players, and coaches who may be very negatively affected by betting in the game as well as the countless people being negatively affected or becoming addicted to gambling which may ruin many people's lives and their children's lives, instead of enjoying the sport for the love of the game, because of the NBA's decision to allow rampant and pervasive betting to make even more excessive amounts of money, and the government's resistance to stop widespread legalized gambling by businesses such as the NBA up to this point.
Perverse Incentive - Wikipedia
