Category: 📁 Sport Acts

I wonder if more NBA rules created to discourage rebuilding and tanking results in "perverse incentives", and that reversing course to completely remove both the draft lottery and play-in tournament might be the simplest, best, or most natural order.

Draft

• Flagg 1 (12th Last)
• Risacher 1 (10th Last)
• Wemby 1, Harper 2, Castle 4
• Cade 1, Ausar 5, Ivey 5
• Tatum 3, Brown 3, Smart 6
• Wade 5, *James 1, *Bosh 4
• Jordan 3, Pippen 5, Grant 10
• Magic 1, Worthy 1, *Kareem 1

While the current NBA rule changes with the draft lottery and play-in tournament, as well as any further flattening of the draft lottery odds or other rule changes, are an attempt to combat a team rebuilding with homegrown talent and tanking or losing some games some years, it's possible the effects of these changes are worse and with other unexpected and negative consequences and natural reactions by teams that we have seen. It may be that great teams of the present and past had often naturally rebuilt to get one or two high draft picks or the possibility of a star player, and then they would go on to win or try to win for many years, including many of the top ranked, successful, and championship level teams of the past.

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When people say things like "This NBA team could finish 7th but not 5th", it doesn't make sense to me logically. In 24-25 West 3-8 was 2 games apart, in 23-24 East 2-8 was 4 games apart, in 22-23 West 4-10 was 3 games apart, in 21-22 East 6-10 was 3 games apart, etc.

Hey Jacob.

Great Evaluation And Analysis

• I think you really do a great job of evaluating players and coming up with different analysis or ideas for teams or players, to understand the value of players or make possible changes and adjustments.
• It's really fun to hear your thoughts on players or trades, and in particular I think your draft prospect bullet point breakdowns are an excellent example of that.
• In terms of evaluating players, one thing I think that I look at extremely differently than you is ages of players, and in particular young players who might be truly valuable or even untouchable, and also when players are going to be entering or in their prime.

Potential Of Young Players

• Lowry was 26, about 3 years older than Barnes is now, when he was traded to the Raptors and he wasn't that great of a player yet, being traded for a future first round pick.
• Masai didn't want to include the young Siakam or Anunoby in the Kawhi trade, and they were basically nothings on offense at about age 23 and 21 after each averaged about 7 points the previous year.
• Josh Giddey is still just 22 and he already shot 38% 3PT on 4 3PA this year while Caruso shot 35% on 3 3PA.
• James Harden was about 23 and playing on the bench for OKC the previous year when he was traded to Houston.
• Shai was a bit younger at about 21 when he was traded away after his 10 PPG rookie year along with a 20 PPG Danilo Gallinari and about 5 first round picks for a 28 year old Paul George.
• Barnes is just 23, already won rookie of the year, and has already been an All-Star, so he'll just be entering his age 24 season next year!

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Here's a plan for the Raptors going forward, focused on getting all players who are the best 3PT shooters, deprioritizing great athletic defenders unless they'll shoot great too, and leave passing for the best passers on the team to setup 3PT shooters.

Strategy

TLDR - Shooting Yes, Defense Less, Passing Bests

• Build the team around everyone being a great shooter except for Barnes and Chomche
• So, focus less on defense, with defense being best possible only IF they can shoot great
• Put ball in hands of natural best passers like Barnes/Quickley, Mitchell/Mogbo for now
• So, focus less on everyone needing to pass in future, less turnovers, and 3PT specialists
• Keep PG/SG/SF/PF/C players who can be 40% 3PT shooters, defense 2nd skill hopefully
• Keep PF/C players who can be 35% 3PT shooters, defense 2nd skill important for C

Plan

TLDR - Lose This Year, Trade Poor Shooters, Get Great Shooters

• Lose for 1 year and get high 2025 draft pick
• Trade veterans and all poor shooters for young players/picks who are best shooters
• Play the young players more so you lose this year
• Make everyone take catch and shoot 3s, even Mitchell/Mogbo/Chomche/etc.
• Focus on getting the best young 3PT shooters
• Get best defense you can while having everyone shoot, and only great passers pass
• 2024 Raptors Draft Trade Idea

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Here is a potential idea and plan for how to finish the 2019-2020 NBA season and playoffs.

What

Teams - 20 Teams

• 20 teams return to play
• The top 8 teams in the East
• The top 12 teams in the West

Exhibition - 15 Playoff Teams and Memphis

• 4 Games - Top 1-4 teams in East play bottom 5-8 teams in West
• 4 Games - Top 1-4 teams in West play bottom 5-8 teams in East
• Play-In - 15 teams advance to playoffs, Memphis to Play-In

Tournament - 4 West Teams from 9-12

• 3 Games - Teams 9-12 in the West play a round robin
• 1 Game - Top 2 teams from round robin play single final game
• Winner - The winner still only has a chance to make the playoffs

Play-In - Memphis and Tournament Winner

• Best of 3 - Memphis plays tournament winner in best of 3 game series
• 8th Spot - Play-In winner receives 8th seed in the West
• Break - 15 playoff teams rest during 3 game play-in series

Playoffs - 16 Teams Best of 7

• Best of 7 - Play a regular and full best of 7 game series playoffs

Why

Teams

• Effort to come back may not be worth it for all teams
• 9-12 teams in West are very close in standings, and to 8th place
• 9-12 Teams in East are well behind the 8th placed team

Exhibition

• Teams play teams they are unlikely to meet in playoffs
• Fans will just be happy that their teams are playing games
• Wins and player stats do not count toward 2019-2020 season

Tournament

• 9-12 teams in West all likely desired and had chance to make playoffs
• 9-16 teams in East had much lower likelihood and desire to make playoffs
• A single game playoff is exciting, and teams weren't actually in playoff seed

Play-In

• Memphis could have been caught by one of the tournament teams
• A 3 Game series is adequate yet exciting, as 9-12 were close to 8th place
• Play-In player stats would likely count toward 2019-2020 playoff stats

Playoffs

• The playoff revenue may take priority over regular season games
• Playing best of 7 gives a true winner and a regular playoff schedule
• Full playoffs given priority even if 2020-2021 season needs shortened

What is the Oilers roster and who should play on lines together? I play armchair coach and try to make the best Oiler lines and depth chart from their current players.

After watching the majority of the Oilers games this season, I couldn't help but evaluate the players and start thinking of line combinations. So I thought I'd have a shot at what I think the Oilers and McLellan could do with their lines and roster. These lines are based on getting the most out of their current players, both for right now and looking forward to the future.

Warning - I'm Not A Scout Or Expert

OK, first of all, I do at least know Slepyshev is a left winger. And I realize moving Yakupov to play center is absolutely insane. Maybe one way to put it is that I'm not smart enough to know just how insane it is. But with that said, I'm not a purely casual watcher, or completely uninformed. Even though I'm no scout and I have never played any high level hockey, I love watching what is actually going on in the game. I've watched fairly closely at times as I've enjoyed the games this season. And I've done a bit of reading about these players in coming up with this set of lines too.

But if you think one of these ideas is stupid, you are most likely right. I'm really just another guy with an opinion. I don't know the Oilers in and out like some people who have been avid fans for the last 5 years. And I certainly don't know as much as coaches, scouts, or ex-NHLers who actually evaluate players better than I ever could. Please write your own article about all the reasons Yakupov can't play center for instance, and contact me with the link. I'd be interested in reading it. Or even better, try to write down your own full set of lines and roster. It would be neat to see how other people think the lines and depth chart of the current Oilers should be drawn up and why.

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