Category: 📁 Sport Acts

I wonder if simplest NBA Draft Lottery rule change to quickly try would be to eliminate play-in tournament, and give equal odds to all 14 picks for all 14 non-playoff teams, even though I'm not sure it's fair to bottom teams or a great long-term solution.

Be Careful What You Swish For Act

I wonder if more NBA rules created to discourage rebuilding and tanking results in "perverse incentives", and that reversing course to completely remove both the draft lottery and play-in tournament might be the simplest, best, or most natural order.

Draft

• Flagg 1 (12th Last)
• Risacher 1 (10th Last)
• Wemby 1, Harper 2, Castle 4
• Cade 1, Ausar 5, Ivey 5
• Tatum 3, Brown 3, Smart 6
• Wade 5, *James 1, *Bosh 4
• Jordan 3, Pippen 5, Grant 10
• Magic 1, Worthy 1, *Kareem 1

While the current NBA rule changes with the draft lottery and play-in tournament, as well as any further flattening of the draft lottery odds or other rule changes, are an attempt to combat a team rebuilding with homegrown talent and tanking or losing some games some years, it's possible the effects of these changes are worse and with other unexpected and negative consequences and natural reactions by teams that we have seen. It may be that great teams of the present and past had often naturally rebuilt to get one or two high draft picks or the possibility of a star player, and then they would go on to win or try to win for many years, including many of the top ranked, successful, and championship level teams of the past.

When you reward higher ranking and mid-level teams with an opportunity to both make the playoffs with the play-in tournament going to 10 teams and only 6 teams making it for sure, or get the number 1 pick in the draft with the randomized lottery draft odds, you may have incentivized even those mid-level teams to want to lose games, sit top players, trade franchise players like Doncic, miss the playoffs or play-in tournament on purpose, or make other decisions if they could get a #1 or top pick, or improve their odds for themselves by finishing 14th, or 12th, or 10th, or 8th last in the standings. If you take this even further and create more rules, other unforeseen perverse incentives may result, such as the current rich teams getting even richer or teams not having an opportunity to rebuild naturally, or other unforeseen future consequences from any new rules creating potentially perverse incentives.

Instead, before you had the possibly unfair lottery draft and the possibly unfair play-in tournament, the very bottom teams might try to lose some games to improve their draft position and likelihood of getting a great player and that has always naturally been the case, and that doesn't appear to have changed. Also, it was clear that the teams with the best records over 82 games made the playoffs and teams knew if they made the top 8 they were a playoff team, instead of a much worse team who could have even more than 10 more losses than another team. On top of this, the mid-level teams who just missed the playoffs or who were trying to get better weren't as obsessed at losing some games because the odds of getting a franchise player with the 8th pick isn't much better than the 10th pick, like is the case if you could possibly get the 1st, 3rd, or 5th pick.

Furthermore, I have to add that I suspect it's quite possible that the NBA and its executives and owners might be particularly more upset today in 2026 at teams who might try to lose some games when they are at the bottom of the league or aren't a playoff team, which has likely been going on forever and with successful results since the 1950s, because of their recent decision to make money from gambling and betting, and the consequences lower and mid-level teams trying to lose some games or sit out players has for that. While a separate topic, I will briefly say that I at least hope and meditate for the current and future health and wellbeing of all of the referees, players, and coaches who may be very negatively affected by betting in the game as well as the countless people being negatively affected or becoming addicted to gambling which may ruin many people's lives and their children's lives, instead of enjoying the sport for the love of the game, because of the NBA's decision to allow rampant and pervasive betting to make even more excessive amounts of money, and the government's resistance to stop widespread legalized gambling by businesses such as the NBA up to this point.

Perverse Incentive - Wikipedia

When people say things like "This NBA team could finish 7th but not 5th", it doesn't make sense to me logically. In 24-25 West 3-8 was 2 games apart, in 23-24 East 2-8 was 4 games apart, in 22-23 West 4-10 was 3 games apart, in 21-22 East 6-10 was 3 games apart, etc.

Hey Jacob.

Great Evaluation And Analysis

• I think you really do a great job of evaluating players and coming up with different analysis or ideas for teams or players, to understand the value of players or make possible changes and adjustments.
• It's really fun to hear your thoughts on players or trades, and in particular I think your draft prospect bullet point breakdowns are an excellent example of that.
• In terms of evaluating players, one thing I think that I look at extremely differently than you is ages of players, and in particular young players who might be truly valuable or even untouchable, and also when players are going to be entering or in their prime.

Potential Of Young Players

• Lowry was 26, about 3 years older than Barnes is now, when he was traded to the Raptors and he wasn't that great of a player yet, being traded for a future first round pick.
• Masai didn't want to include the young Siakam or Anunoby in the Kawhi trade, and they were basically nothings on offense at about age 23 and 21 after each averaged about 7 points the previous year.
• Josh Giddey is still just 22 and he already shot 38% 3PT on 4 3PA this year while Caruso shot 35% on 3 3PA.
• James Harden was about 23 and playing on the bench for OKC the previous year when he was traded to Houston.
• Shai was a bit younger at about 21 when he was traded away after his 10 PPG rookie year along with a 20 PPG Danilo Gallinari and about 5 first round picks for a 28 year old Paul George.
• Barnes is just 23, already won rookie of the year, and has already been an All-Star, so he'll just be entering his age 24 season next year!

Trading Away Young Players

• Trading players like that who are under 25, who you drafted very high, who you could have as a franchise player for the next 10 years, and who could be a top 10 player in the NBA might not be wise at all, regardless of who you are trading them for.
• So I think you generally don't want to ever trade young players with All-NBA potential who haven't proven themselves like Harden, Shai, or Siakam, let alone young players who have already proven themselves to some degree like Doncic, Carter, or Barnes.
• Carter's rookie year he was already 22 by the way, a year younger than Barnes was this year.
• Also, on top of Barnes ability, he seems to already be a natural leader even at his extremely young age, which may be quite uncommon for such a young person, and certainly wasn't the case for players like DeRozan or Lowry at age 23 for instance.

Trading For Priming Players

• To go along with that, it can be worth realizing or wanting players who could potentially be top players in the NBA while entering and playing through their primes, which I see as age 27 to 33.
• Again, Barnes will still just be 24, so his prime might not even start for 3 years.
• In particular, it is worth noting that the Raptors have many young players now, while Giannis will be 31 next year.
• Even more importantly and really worth considering is that three of the biggest acquisitions of proven players by the Raptors were for Ibaka, Kawhi, and Ingram, who were all 27 when the Raptors traded for them.
• So, they were all just entering their prime years, and you could potentially have had them for at least 6 years of their whole prime, which was just starting.
• Meanwhile, Barnes and some other players on the Raptors like Quickley, Barrett, and Agbaji are younger and will be entering their prime in a couple years.

Consider Age And Potential

• When we look at trades or when we are evaluating players I think it is primarily important to always consider their age and potential first, instead of just comparing what players are in the deal now or how good they are now.
• In particular, I think it is worth knowing that 23 is still very young and that giving up anyone who has any potential to be one of the best players in the league when they enter their prime may not be wise at all.
• Also, it is worth considering that keeping, having, or getting players who could be one of the better players in the league when entering their prime at about age 27 may also be extremely valuable, and that getting players who are 32 or just past their prime may be much less valuable and not worth giving up these potential young and prime entering players for.

Amateur Hour Sports - Jacob's YouTube Channel

Here is a potential idea and plan for how to finish the 2019-2020 NBA season and playoffs.

What

Teams - 20 Teams

• 20 teams return to play
• The top 8 teams in the East
• The top 12 teams in the West

Exhibition - 15 Playoff Teams and Memphis

• 4 Games - Top 1-4 teams in East play bottom 5-8 teams in West
• 4 Games - Top 1-4 teams in West play bottom 5-8 teams in East
• Play-In - 15 teams advance to playoffs, Memphis to Play-In

Tournament - 4 West Teams from 9-12

• 3 Games - Teams 9-12 in the West play a round robin
• 1 Game - Top 2 teams from round robin play single final game
• Winner - The winner still only has a chance to make the playoffs

Play-In - Memphis and Tournament Winner

• Best of 3 - Memphis plays tournament winner in best of 3 game series
• 8th Spot - Play-In winner receives 8th seed in the West
• Break - 15 playoff teams rest during 3 game play-in series

Playoffs - 16 Teams Best of 7

• Best of 7 - Play a regular and full best of 7 game series playoffs

Why

Teams

• Effort to come back may not be worth it for all teams
• 9-12 teams in West are very close in standings, and to 8th place
• 9-12 Teams in East are well behind the 8th placed team

Exhibition

• Teams play teams they are unlikely to meet in playoffs
• Fans will just be happy that their teams are playing games
• Wins and player stats do not count toward 2019-2020 season

Tournament

• 9-12 teams in West all likely desired and had chance to make playoffs
• 9-16 teams in East had much lower likelihood and desire to make playoffs
• A single game playoff is exciting, and teams weren't actually in playoff seed

Play-In

• Memphis could have been caught by one of the tournament teams
• A 3 Game series is adequate yet exciting, as 9-12 were close to 8th place
• Play-In player stats would likely count toward 2019-2020 playoff stats

Playoffs

• The playoff revenue may take priority over regular season games
• Playing best of 7 gives a true winner and a regular playoff schedule
• Full playoffs given priority even if 2020-2021 season needs shortened