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Edmonton Oilers Strategy Path 2015

What is the Oilers roster and who should play on lines together? I play armchair coach and try to make the best Oiler lines and depth chart from their current players.

After watching the majority of the Oilers games this season, I couldn't help but evaluate the players and start thinking of line combinations. So I thought I'd have a shot at what I think the Oilers and McLellan could do with their lines and roster. These lines are based on getting the most out of their current players, both for right now and looking forward to the future.

Warning - I'm Not A Scout Or Expert

OK, first of all, I do at least know Slepyshev is a left winger. And I realize moving Yakupov to play center is absolutely insane. Maybe one way to put it is that I'm not smart enough to know just how insane it is. But with that said, I'm not a purely casual watcher, or completely uninformed. Even though I'm no scout and I have never played any high level hockey, I love watching what is actually going on in the game. I've watched fairly closely at times as I've enjoyed the games this season. And I've done a bit of reading about these players in coming up with this set of lines too.

But if you think one of these ideas is stupid, you are most likely right. I'm really just another guy with an opinion. I don't know the Oilers in and out like some people who have been avid fans for the last 5 years. And I certainly don't know as much as coaches, scouts, or ex-NHLers who actually evaluate players better than I ever could. Please write your own article about all the reasons Yakupov can't play center for instance, and contact me with the link. I'd be interested in reading it. Or even better, try to write down your own full set of lines and roster. It would be neat to see how other people think the lines and depth chart of the current Oilers should be drawn up and why.

Forwards

  • Line 1 - Hall - Nugent-Hopkins - Purcell
  • Line 2 - Draisaitl - McDavid - Eberle
  • Line 3 - Pouliot - Yakupov - Letestu
  • Line 4 - Korpikoski - Lander - Slepyshev

Defense

  • Pair 1 - Klefbom - Schultz
  • Pair 2 - Nurse - Reinhart
  • Pair 3 - Davidson - Sekera

Reserves

  • Forwards - Klinkhammer - Gazdic - Hendricks
  • Defense - Fayne - Ference

Preface - I Like What McLellan Is Doing

And what is he doing? As far as I can tell, he is trying out different line combinations and making players know that there can and will be changes. Just because they play with someone doesn't mean they are in a linemate marriage which will never be broken up. Basically, you need to be able to play with different people. And he is going to try to find what combinations work best. However, he is doing that while also providing some consistency at the same time. For instance, Yakupov and Pouliot have played together a lot, even after McDavid got injured. Nugent-Hopkins and Hall have been together for quite a while.

But McLellan sure showed that he would make changes if needed. Boom. McDavid and Hall split up after the first regular season game. That was a surprise. Again, I'm not super informed, but I think he really believed in McDavid and Hall being a duo. While Nugent-Hopkins and Eberle would be another duo. He gave them the pre-season and one game together, but decisively tried something else when he felt it wasn't working well.

I won't go into a history of what all McLellan has done with line combinations this season. But I really like so many of the different changes and little adjustments he is making. Like the move to separate Hall and McDavid, putting Draisatl with Hall and Nugent-Hopkins, and Eberle coming back on the third line. The injuries aren't great. But they have allowed the team to evaluate players lower down in the depth chart early on in this Chiarelli-McLellan rebuild, or really "build" I would say. The possible lines I've layed out take into account some of the changes McLellan has already made, as well as players Chiarelli has brought into the team.

Lines 1 And 2 - Smart, Smart, Smart

OK, now the fun part. I've been thinking about different lineups since the first game. My overall idea for the team is to make the top 2 lines only have players on it that have good skill, but also really good hockey sense and passing ability. I think Hall, McDavid, Eberle, Nugent-Hopkins, and Draisatl all fit into that category.

In doing this, I think you are going with the Oilers strength. To continue with the move to put Draisatl, a great passer and quick thinker, on a wing on the top 2 lines instead of having him center the third line. To move Yakupov to the third line, because he can't keep up with the passing of those other players. To put another player who can think nearly as quickly as those other players with them. To not put a big checking winger as a third piece to the top line duos, but keep those big wingers for the third and fourth lines.

So, I'd try to pack those top 2 lines with great passers, maybe even more so than great skilled players. I also understand the idea of putting some of these scoring duos with a fast, capable, forechecking big man. My thinking is that the Hall/Nugent-Hopkins and McDavid/Draisatl duos are big enough and strong enough on the puck in the offensive zone that you don't have to put them with a big guy like Pouliot, Korpikoski, or Slepyshev. They are also capable defensively, with Nugent-Hopkins, as well as McDavid and Draisatl, a former center.

So I wonder if you can pack those top 2 lines with another good passer and scorer, and not have to worry about their forechecking ability or defensive ability. Someone who is more likely to make the smart pass to them, than shoot the puck every time. Or to find the open ice for a pass from them, since they are all good passers too. Someone like Purcell.

Lines 3 And 4 - Defense, Defense, Defense By Offense

This leaves the lower 2 lines to be focused more on defense. One thing about going with this strategy could be that you let your players know this fact. It gives the 3rd and 4th lines a role to live up to. They know that while they are all good players that can score, that they want to focus on defense just as much or more than offense.

So these bottom 2 lines eventually get packed with 4 big wingers who are good forecheckers. It just so happens the Oilers already have quite a few of these. Pouliot and Slepyshev, who also have speed and some scoring ability. Korpikoski, who Chiarelli traded for. Gazdic and Klinkhammer. These lines are also packed with players who have speed if possible. So they can hang with top skaters on other teams. Yakupov's speed in the middle could help with defense, and it moves a smaller player to the middle of the ice. The bigger wingers can get the puck wrung around the boards out, and hopefully be the first into the corners more often in the offensive zone. Letestu is a veteran center put with Yakupov so he can help him with the defensive side of being a center. Letestu can take the draws for now.

These lower lines should still have the ability to score though. And without having to "balance" the lines on purpose by moving great players like Eberle or Draisatl to the third line. Offense is the best defense. Having good offensive players like Yakupov and Pouliot on that third line gives you a chance to score still. All of Letestu, Yakupov, and Pouliot can put the puck in the net, without having to worry about making a lot of great passes like the gifted awareness and passing plays of the players on the top 2 lines. Dump or get the puck in the offensive end, and try to get the puck to Yakupov playing center, to beat a guy and score.

Oh, and if Yakupov playing center is just horrible, just switch him and Letestu. I still like this set of lines. If that big change doesn't work out, I'd still go with these same lines, but with Letestu centering the third line.

Balance On Lines

So I made the top 2 lines be "smart" players with great hockey sense only, and the bottom 2 lines be focused more on defense, but still with enough offense to score. However, I also ended up making these lines balanced in certain ways. There is at least one older player on each of the lines. Purcell on line 1, Eberle on line 2, Pouliot and Letestu on line 3, and Korpikoski on line 4. There is one very fast goal scorer on each line. Hall, McDavid, Yakupov, and Slepyshev. There is a great passer on each of the top 2 lines, with Nugent-Hopkins and Draisaitl. Of course the other 4 players on those lines are also good passers, being "smart" players who can make quick decisions. While not great passers, Letestu and Pouliot both play an overall game, and can set up Yakupov on the third line too.

There is depth at center, so any injuries can be handled easier. Draisatl and Letestu can be moved over to center. But if this works, I would strongly consider always leaving Yakupov at center, and rarely ever the wing except for special teams. I only changed the positions of Yakupov, Letestu, and Slepyshev, two of which are quite low on the depth chart right now. I guess Draisatl too who had been moved to right-wing first. But with these changes all players would now play on their correct sides. With right-handed players on RW and left-handed players on LW. Unfortunately, the same can't be said for the defense. Reinhart is forced to play the off side with the decision to put Nurse and Reinhart together.

Putting so much scoring on the top two lines means that an injury to one player doesn't make the line poor offensively. You can move any big winger like Pouliot, Slepyshev, or Korpikoski up with any 2 of the top 6 players. The worst injury would be Hall, with Slepyshev or Pouliot probably moving up to play with Nugent-Hopkins and Purcell. But that is still a pretty good line, and you might play the Yakupov line a bit more if Hall goes down. Remember I'm looking towards the future too. The hope is that Yakupov and Slepyshev are only going to get better.

A Few Notes About These Lines And Roster

1. Lines For Right Now AND The Future

These line ideas have been made looking towards the future. Is Fayne better to have playing right now than Davidson? Probably. Is Hendricks a better guy to have on a 4th line than Slepyshev, and leave Slepyshev in the AHL? Yep. But I've made up this possible line list really thinking about who I would keep on the roster going forward. I was thinking about how I might pair players together even in late 2017 as much as right now. Who I think I would really want to play together a year or more from now. But this roster is also for right now. Basically these are lines that I would also go with right now.

2. Lines Assuming No Injuries Or Contracts

A luxury I have in writing an article like this is not dealing with all of the headaches of a real roster. Putting a lineup together every night is what is really tough. Especially with all of the injuries the Oilers have been dealt with this year. Mixing and matching has been done very well by McLellan. I'm looking at a bigger picture really. This set of lines and roster is made in a perfect world where there are no injuries, and no big contracts for players who you might want to leave off the roster. It's more of a depth chart of the players I think should be a part of the team. But also with an assessment of who I think would work best together based on just the games I've seen this year, and what has been tried so far by McLellan.

3. Missing Players Didn't Make The Cut

It's possible I missed someone. But for the most part, if I haven't included someone, I am not that high on them being in the roster going forward. Again, I understand that some players I have left off should really be in the lineup now, over someone like Davidson for instance. I thought about listing these players in a "Trade" or "Gone" section, but figured that would just be mean. But who I've left off of this roster says as much about my assessment of the players as who I have in the lineup. Also of note is the guys I marked as "Veteran". Those are players I would keep on the roster for now more for their experience. But I expect that younger and more talented players will replace them going forward.

Conclusion

Lines, Roster, And Depth Chart - Part 2

I was going to go into more detail, writing about each forward line and defensive pair. Explaining more of why I might put them together. For instance, why I might move Yakupov to center, put McDavid with Draisatl, or Nurse and Reinhart together. However this is quite long already, and it explains the main idea of the lines. I might write a second article some time about the ideas behind each line, including more of a scouting report for each player so far this season.

Jumping On The McBandwagon

I mentioned earlier that I'm not an expert, but just a guy with an opinion after watching many of the Oilers games so far this season. Unfortunately, I'm also not a true Oilers fan. I haven't been watching or keeping up with this team for the last few years. So I don't want to punch someone every time Yakupov gives away the puck in the neutral zone trying to stick handle around 3 people. And my Facebook status every other week for the last few years hasn't been "Hey do you think the Oilers could trade Nugent-Hopkins away for X?".  I haven't had my hopes and dreams crushed over the last decade, seeing the Oilers at the bottom of the standings again. I actually like watching all these young players. And it's been so much fun watching some NHL hockey games again, and having a team to cheer for.

But flat-out I am jumping on the bandwagon to be an Oilers fan again. I haven't watched too much hockey the last seven years or so, other than World Juniors and Olympics. I played hockey in the 80s and 90s when I was younger. I was a huge Oilers fan the whole time, growing up in the prairies. And of course Gretzky was my favorite player, along with Fleury later.

I just really wanted to watch McDavid and my old favorite team after not watching NHL hockey too much. You can kind of think of me as an informed fan, not a real true Oilers fan. Kind of like McLellan and Chiarelli deciding to go to Edmonton because they know the Oilers have a good core of young players. I've decided to check out the Oilers and join the McDavid and Oilers bandwagon. Even though they are last in the division, it's sure been fun watching them so far, even with McDavid out. Time has flown by watching them and so far I have stayed on and enjoyed the ride on the bandwagon.

NBA Slam Dunk Competition 2013

I thought the NBA slam dunk competition was excellent again this year, as long as you turned off the volume. The announcers were easily the worst part of it for me, but other than them I enjoyed it. There was a lot of great dunks even in the early rounds. And the best part was that it finished really strong which sometimes doesn't happen. The two finalists had great dunks ready to go in the final round and pretty much nailed each of them. Was a lot of fun to watch. I thought Jeremy Evans jumping over the picture was great. And Terrence Ross's final two dunks were both great, including the one off the backboard with the Vince Carter jersey. Excellent night of slam dunking again this year if you ask me.

Bill Russell Basketball Story

Quick story from Bill Russell, the great NBA player who won 11 championships. He was asked by a reporter about what it would be like to play in the NBA with the current generation of players. The game has changed a lot and there are a lot of great players with great abilities. The reporter asked "If you were playing today how many points a game would you get now?" Russell replied "Probably about 10 points per game". The reporter said "Wow, just 10 points a game, because the game has changed so much and there are so many talented players now?" Russell said "Well I am 75 years old now".

Curtis Granderson Hitting 8th With 43 Homers

Curtis Granderson has hit more than 40 homers in both of the last 2 years and is hitting 8th for the Yankees today in the playoffs. He finished 2nd this year in the MLB in homers and only 6 guys had more than 40 homers this year. Doesn’t seem right to have him so low in the lineup but that’s the luxury that the Yankees always seem to have with their huge payroll. You can bet he would hit cleanup or there abouts every night on pretty much any other team.

Josh Hamilton Hits 4 Homers

It’s really too bad that Josh Hamilton doesn’t know how to hit a baseball. And it’s scary how good he might have been if he didn’t have all the personal problems he has had and miss like 6 years of playing baseball because of drugs basically. He’s who I now think of when I think of a real ballplayer that I’ve watched that might be like the guy in The Natural. Him and Ken Griffey Jr.

Josh Hamilton rips 4 two-run HRs vs Orioles

Blue Jays Spring Training Record

After winning yesterday here is the Blue Jays record so far in spring training. They've just won 8 in a row and have 7 games left.

  • 20-4 - .833 - TOR - 2012

Here are the 4 best records in spring since 2003. These are the only records above a .700 winning percentage. Also, the least amount of games lost by a team in spring in those years is 8.

  • 26-9 - .765 - LAA - 2009
  • 20-8 - .714 - TB - 2010
  • 24-10 - .706 - NYY - 2009
  • 19-8 - .704 - KC - 2003

Also this article says that spring can mean something, at least when you look at all the records combined. It doesn't mean the Blue Jays will have a great year but according to this article if they have the best record in spring they probably have a good chance of at least having a good season and finishing over a .500 winning percentage.

Spring training records really matter

Well, a 10-year look (it didn’t take me 10 years to do it, I just looked at numbers over a 10-year period!) at MLB’s spring training records reveals some interesting trends. You might have heard that “the numbers never lie;” the numbers I discovered should give baseball fans a little more reason to pay attention to spring training standings.

Here are some of the tidbits that I unearthed while looking at spring training records over the past 10 years:

• Out of the past 20 World Series participants since 2002, only six had a spring training record worse than one game under .500.
• Seven of the 10 teams that had the worst overall spring training record went on to finish last or next-to-last in their division that season.
• Only two of the 11 teams (two teams tied one year) with the best overall spring training record had a losing record that season.

Sports Stars Names Then And Now

Realized one interesting difference between sports stars from 20 years ago and today. They used to be known or referred to by their last names instead of first names or hyphenated names. Gretzky, Jordan, Bird, Bonds, Griffey vs Sid, Lebron, A-Rod, Pedro, Tiger. Miss the old days when the coolest name for someone was just using their last name.

Good News For Cubs Hiring Theo Epstein

Just heard that the Cubs have hired GM Theo Epstein away from the Red Sox. My first thought is that he will do what it takes to sign Albert Pujols and make him a Cub. They probably weren’t really in the hunt for Pujols but my hunch says he wants him and could get him since the Yankees have Teixeira, the Red Sox have Gonzalez, and Fielder is also a free agent for another big market team to get.

Toronto Blue Jays Strategy Path 2011

Here are a few different predictions I have about the Blue Jays lineup for 2011. I haven't heard anyone talk about some of these possibilities at this point. A couple of these predictions are somewhat unlikely but I think there is a chance they could happen. These changes to the lineup are based on the Blue Jays having their current roster of players and working with what they have. If they make any other offseason moves it would obviously change the lineup and what lineup they go with. Also, I think the batting order will change quite a bit depending on who does well. Now onto what I think the Jays could do with their current roster for the 2011 season, beginning with the most unlikely.

1. Rajai Davis Starts In Center And Vernon Wells Moves To Right

People have mentioned other possible lineup changes but nobody has mentioned moving Wells. This would give them a better defense than Davis in LF and Snider in RF I think, and before last year there was talk about Wells' declining defense. They traded for Davis and he could just be a 4th outfielder, but if they actually traded for him you have to think they like him quite a bit. If they really want Davis in the lineup it would be gutsy to go ahead and move Wells to RF because this would give them the best defense and lineup with the players they currently have. Davis has more speed in CF than Wells but has a poor arm so can't play RF and it would mean he is at the top of the lineup every day. Snider in RF and Davis in LF of course is more likely so as not to upset Wells but I think there is a chance they could do this.

2. Carlos Villanueva Is Given A Chance To Start And Be In The Rotation

They traded Milwaukee for him in the offseason and I like the trade. Check out his good K/IP and K/BB ratio, especially for last year. Milwaukee even sent him down to AAA for a couple months last year so he hasn't been unbelievable but he has potential just like with the Jays getting Morrow last year. When they traded for Morrow last year there was not much talk at all about him being moved back to a starter but I thought right away they would probably do it. Right after the trade people just thought he might be a closer or in the bullpen. It's the same thing with Villanueva as everyone just thinks he is a decent bullpen pick up as he has never been a full time starter and was in the bullpen all of last year. But I think he could possibly be given a chance to start. Drabek would start the year at AAA to give Villanueva the chance.

3. Jose Bautista Moves To Third Base

This prediction is more likely than the others and has been discussed but I have to mention it since it is what allows my first prediction to possibly come true. They would have Bautista at 3B and Snider in left. They just signed Edwin Encarnacion but it sounds certain they don't want him playing 3B because of poor defense, but instead want him to split 1B and DH with Lind. Lind is going to try playing 1B. With the current roster, some people have thought Bautista might have to be moved to 3B if they don't get a different 3B. Another option that has been talked about is moving Aaron Hill to 3B and getting a 2B.

4. Travis Snider Hits 4th Or 5th By The Middle Of The Year

I think the Jays batting order could change often during the year because of the players they have. Depending on who hits well and what works they could move guys around. But the most obvious one that could change as the season goes on without taking into account if he has an up or down year is Travis Snider. With the other players you don't know how good of an offensive year they will have, but Snider should really just get better this year. He is one year older and as long as he is healthy should turn into a good hitter this year. Their best lineup by the end of the year would have Snider hitting cleanup I believe, though he may be only likely to make it to the 5th hole this year. I personally think an interesting lineup would be Davis, Hill, Bautista, Snider, Wells, Lind, Encarnacion, Arencibia, Escobar.

5. The Hitting Lineup

  • Rajai Davis - CF
  • Yunel Escobar - SS
  • Jose Bautista - 3B
  • Vernon Wells - RF
  • Adam Lind - 1B
  • Aaron Hill - 2B
  • Travis Snider - LF
  • Edwin Encarnacion - DH
  • J.P. Arencibia - C

6. The Pitching Rotation

Starters

  • Ricky Romero - SP
  • Brandon Morrow - SP
  • Brett Cecil - SP
  • Carlos Villanueva - SP
  • Mark Rzepczynski - SP
  • Kyle Drabek - SP - AAA

Relievers

  • Jason Frasor - RP
  • Shawn Camp - RP
  • Casey Janssen - RP
  • David Purcey - RP
  • Jesse Carlson - RP
  • Jesse Litsch - RP