Author: Munro Stewart

Here are some predictions for what I think could be launched at Apple's next media event. Most likely Apple will have an event to announce some media hardware and software like iPods in the fall of 2010 sometime around September.

1. The Entry Level iPod Touch Will Become More Affordable At $150 Or Even $100

I think Apple wants to get everyone onto their iOS mobile devices which basically includes the iPhone and iPod Touch. The main reason for this is they can sell apps, games, books and other content on these devices and they can really only sell music on the older devices like the iPod Classic and iPod Nano. Because of this I think they will drop the price of the entry level iPod Touch even more. Of course this would cut into the price of the iPod Nano which I'll talk more about in a bit. The iPhone 4 may be quietly updated with a 64GB version replacing the 32GB version too.

• iPod Touch 3GS - 16GB - $150
• iPod Touch 4G - 64GB - $300
• iPod Touch 4G - 128GB - $400

2. The iPod Classic And Possibly The iPod Nano Will Be Discontinued

I think the iPod Classic will finally be discontinued since the iPod Touch will now have a flash hard drive with 128GB of memory. It's pretty remarkable as it will truly be the end of an era for the hard drive based iPods without a touch screen which started 9 years ago in 2001. I also think that eventually the iPod Nano will be discontinued. My guess is that once the base iPod Touch hits the price of the iPod Nano at $150 it basically makes the iPod Nano redundant. I think that may happen this year, and if not in 2011.

3. The iPod Touch 4G Gets The iPhone 4 Redesign Including A Camera

This is a pretty safe bet. If Apple is unable to make an iPod Touch with at least the basics of the new design because of costs it will be a big disappointment. Finally the iPod Touch will get a camera, and it will include video recording. This would include a basic camera, basic microphone, Apple A4 processor, 512MB RAM, retina display, gyroscope, and 802.11n, among other features. I say basic camera and microphone because I think it may only get a 3 megapixel camera and one microphone unlike the 5 megapixel camera with HD recording, and two microphones for better noise cancellation that the iPhone 4 has.

4. The iPod Touch Doesn't Get 3G Cellular, GPS, Or A Front Camera

I think that the new iPod Touch will get pretty much everything the new iPhone has except for 3G cellular, GPS, and a front camera. Even though the iPad came in two configurations, one including 3G, I don't think the iPod Touch will in this new version. The iPhone will continue to be the higher end 3G version of the iPod Touch. Apple will continue however to try and sell the iPhone without a contract and try and make it so wireless companies are forced to offer affordable data only plans without a contract like they got done with the iPad. The iPod Touch may get a front camera too in order to try and get more people using Apple's FaceTime. However, I think they may only include it on the iPhone for now to separate the iPhone, keep prices down, and because the iPhone is really considered their communication device.

5. The iPod Touch Gets FM Radio And Possibly Internet Radio Stations

The iPod Touch will finally get FM radio if my Spidey senses are right. The iPod Nano already got FM Radio. Apple will include a way to tag a song for any stations that support it and then buy the song from the iTunes Store on the iPod Touch. I think it's also possible that Apple will integrate online radio stations into the iPod as well, similarly allowing the songs being played to be purchased directly in the iTunes store. They could include a separate radio app that integrates both FM radio and streaming Internet radio stations or include it in the iPod app. They won't include HD Radio for various reasons including that it is pretty much only available in the US as far as I know and it requires more power from the battery.

6. The iPod Touch Is Renamed

I think they could rename the iPod Touch. My guess is they could simply rebrand it as "iPod", though they could pick a new name. If they eventually do discontinue both the iPod Classic and the iPod Nano they could simplify the naming of the iPod Touch and give it the name it deserves as the real replacement for the original iPod.

7. A Significant Redesign Of The Apple TV Probably Won't Happen

I don't have enough of a hunch to guess what direction Apple will go with Apple TV or if they will release a new device this year. I've heard about the rumoured $99 device with 16GB memory that will rely more on streaming. But I'm unsure if that will happen as I think the syncing to a large hard drive is one of the better features of the Apple TV and adding a separate storage device as an addon isn't a very elegant solution. I think Steve could shut down that project if it is one. I also think they have had enough on their plates this year with the launch of the iPad, the major redesign of the iPhone, and a more significant update to their mobile OS with iOS version 4. Eventually they do need to make a big update for the Apple TV making it capable of being the only box by your TV in your living room. But I don't think it will happen this year, and so I think anything revolutionary for the Apple TV won't be announced this year. A price drop, a small redesign, and some update to the operating system could happen but I think they won't make a big deal about it. They won't add things like downloadable apps, a motion sensing remote, a serious entry into downloadable games, TV recording, or a web browser to play HTML5 video and browse websites.

8. The Entry Level Price Of Mobile Me Will Drop Significantly

I think that MobileMe may not become completely free as rumoured awhile ago but the price will drop significantly for the basic features. Apple likes to sell stuff and has never relied on displaying ads in their software as far as I know. If they can offer a service that people need and get most of the people that have a credit card and an iTunes account to pay even a small amount each year it is a large piece of revenue. If I had to guess I would say that an entry level Mobile Me account might be $5 or $10 per year. It could include about 10GB of storage and be good enough for mail, contacts, calendar, and notes. Of course a basic free service offering maybe just 1GB is also very possible and would have the added benefit of getting many more people signed up. I think even then it will require an iTunes account.

9. An Online Music Syncing Service Is Integrated Into Mobile Me

I think that Apple will launch the much rumoured iTunes online music syncing and streaming service this year. I think it will be integrated into Mobile Me and allow you to upload your music and keep it synced to multiple devices like the iPod Touch and iPad. A higher priced subscription to Mobile Me would allow for more storage. If I had to guess I would say $50 for 128GB, since that could be the maximum storage of the largest iPod Touch. Other files such as documents, books, podcasts, and videos can continue to be synced with iDisk. While I think Apple will launch an iTunes syncing and streaming service I don't think they will offer either a music subscription service or a free ad supported Internet radio service of their own.

10. iTunes 10.0 Will Launch

It will include support to sync music and other files besides your email, contacts, and calendar to Mobile Me. Your music will be synced to the iTunes section of Mobile Me. Your apps may be able to be synced to their own area. On top of this it may also include support to sync your other files such as books, documents, podcasts, and videos to iDisk. For now they may just offer the ability to sync your music, but support for apps and iDisk will come fairly soon.

This is a respone to an article titled 'The world doesn't need an Apple tablet, or any other', by Joe Wilcox of BetaNews.

It's an interesting article where he basically states that tablet computers can't become as popular as PCs, laptops, mp3 players, and smartphones, because it is a niche product and is too much of a middle product between laptops and smartphones. He has some interesting points. Tablets have definitely had trouble becoming mainstream devices and part of that problem has been overlapping market segments and the fact people may not buy four separate computers including a desktop, laptop, tablet, and phone.

I disagree with his article though. The main reason that I believe tablets will succeed and become popular is because I think they will replace laptops for regular users. It's that simple. Eventually, a typical home user will have a desktop all in one computer, a tablet portable computer, and a mobile smartphone. They may have only one or two of them. So the addressable market is anyone who currently owns a laptop or netbook. Below are some points answering some of the questions he poses. These advantages that a tablet has over a laptop and other reasons are why I think Apple's tablet and other tablets will replace laptops and netbooks.

One Good Point Is That Tablet Computers Won't Have A Keyboard

Not having a regular keyboard is the big issue and a really good point. It was the same argument with the iPhone and makes an even better argument for tablets trying to replace laptops. But while touchscreen typing isn't as quick as a physical keyboard I think it will be good enough for a lot of people to provide the other benefits that a tablet computer gives you over a laptop. Also it will be better than an iPhone, allowing for four, six, or eight finger typing. That was a weird sentence I know. Anyway, there will eventually be small wireless keyboards that you can take on longer trips that work with tablets for whenever you can get to a desk and stand your tablet up. Or you can sync and do your longer typing on your desktop. I will admit that I think that touchscreen tablets that also have a keyboard like a traditional laptop will be popular for quite awhile, but I do think the great form factor of a tablet will be extremely popular as well and will win over every day users who don't need to type long articles. Just as now the iPhones and iPod Touch are quite popular but so are Blackberry devices and the Palm Pre with a hardware keyboard.

1. People Will Use An Apple Tablet To Do Everything That They Currently Do On A Laptop, But It Will Provide A Better Experience For Doing Those Things

It's not that new technology allows you to do new tasks usually, but it provides a better experience, is easier to use, provides a quicker way to carry out those tasks, and is more portable allowing us to use it in different places. A typewriter or paper and pen can help you write documents just like Microsoft Word can on a computer. A record player can play music just like an mp3 player can. But new and continually improving technology makes a better experience for completing all the tasks we do in life. Tablet computers will provide a better overall experience than laptop computers for many tasks, eventually replacing them or at least merging most of its technology with them. And it will certainly provide a better experience for many tasks than smartphones do, even if it is less portable.

2. A Tablet Has A Bigger Screen Than An Iphone And Also A Larger Keyboard

Screen size is a big determining factor in what the experience is like when doing things on a gadget or device. Again, a tablet's larger screen won't necessary allow you to do new tasks that an iPhone doesn't do, but it will make the experience better. A tablet will make reading, writing and watching videos much more enjoyable and simpler to do on a tablet compared to an iPhone. Many other tasks will be better as well including looking at pictures, browsing the web, email and communication, games, and shopping. Basically anything you use a computer for can be improved in some way with a larger screen. You can't underestimate how much screen size can improve an experience. The tablet will also have a larger keyboard and some other features that are better than the iPhone, such as possibly a webcam and a good video chatting experience. But the screen size alone gives it a completely different and better experience for many tasks than a smartphone.

3. A Tablet Computer Is More Portable Than A Laptop

Portability and size of computers are also big factors in determining your experience with a computer and when, where, and how often you will use them. Laptops, PDAs, and most recently netbooks and smartphones have allowed people to use technology while being more portable. A tablet certainly isn't as portable as a smartphone that you put in your pocket but it doesn't need to be. It's more portable than a laptop and easier to quickly take and use somewhere, whether that is to another room in the house, out for the day, or on a vacation. It's not a huge portability improvement like say a Palm PDA over a desktop computer. But it's still a substantial improvement, such as the Palm PDA was over the Newton's size, or current netbooks are over a laptop with a 15 inch screen. Not having to open the computer makes a tablet much more portable and easier to use on the go than a laptop. Remember those old Handheld PCs from HP and others that ran Windows CE and opened up like a tiny little laptop, before Pocket PCs were made. The Palm stylus devices and later Pocket PCs from Microsoft were so much better for quickly using. But tablets will also be lighter and skinnier than most current laptops and netbooks while still providing a good processor to perform tasks.

4. A Tablet Computer Has Proven Multitouch For Simplicity And Current Laptops Don't

Simplicity and ease of use when performing tasks on a portable computer improve the experience and make it more enjoyable to use. This will be the most drastic change that tablets provide over laptops and is the real reason why they will replace them. Pen computing and voice computing were overrated, in my opinion mostly because typing is quicker and a better experience. But touch computing and gestures was always underrated. We just needed two things. A general purpose user marketed device that allows you to use your finger to truly touch it, and an operating system built especially for touching it with your finger and making gestures. Apple did that with the iPhone and it has proven how great the experience is over a Palm PDA with stylus or a cellphone with physical buttons. Tablet computers will do the same thing by replacing laptops and netbooks that have a physical keyboard and open up, and the original Microsoft pen tablets that used a stylus. Again, the multitouch tablets will just make the computer more enjoyable and easier to use than laptops to do the tasks that you do on the computer.

5. Tablet Computers May Sync Easily With Desktop Computers

In my opinion this is really big and people haven't talked about it much. I think reviewers and users will realize how great that syncing their portable computer with their desktop is when they get a tablet. Syncing computers has been one of the biggest issues for people when deciding to get a desktop, laptop, netbook, or combination of them. And it has been a big headache to keep computers in sync and usually people use one computer as their main computer. I know that cloud computing is partially here and HTML5 is coming, but the ease of use and responsiveness of built in applications and syncing the information in them is still great. So being able to sync your desktop and tablet computer just as you have synced your Palm, PocketPC, iPod and iPhone will be a huge advantage. I'm personally really looking forward to this one, even though it means I need to buy a different program on the tablet, smartphone, and desktop.

6. Tablet Computers May Turn On Instantly And Last Longer On Batteries Than Typical Laptops

If tablets are made with an operating system to turn on instantly in everyday use it will be a major ease of use advantage. There is nothing like being able to instantly turn on a device. The batteries in tablet computers like the Apple tablet will also hopefully last quite long, at least compared to the 2-5 hours of typical laptops of the past. Having an ARM or other very low power processor, less components, and for now a smaller screen will allow for longer battery life than traditional laptops.

7. Portable Computing Is Not A Niche Product

Wilcox first argues that with the iPod and iPhone devices Apple pushed into established markets, but then says that tablets are different because they are a niche product. He lost me a bit on this one and I think he is mixing up comparisons a bit. He says that the Sony Walkman had been established portable music players for two decades and that mp3 players had been around for awhile but hadn't done very well. Then Apple created the iPod to improve the mp3 player and build on the established portable music segment set buy the Walkman and portable CD players. Agreed. He also notes that the iPhone did the same thing. It built on the established cell phone market but improved the smartphone which hadn't done very well yet. Agreed again. But then he states that tablets are different because they are a niche product.

Tablets are no more a niche product than mp3 players or smartphones. The established and addressable market that tablets are going for is portable computers such as laptops and netbooks. The iPod improved mp3 players and went after Walkmans, and the iPhone improved smartphones and went after cell phones. In the same way, an Apple tablet will improve on previous tablet computers that haven't done well and go after the laptop and netbook. So while the tablet market isn't established, the laptop market is, and it is laptops that tablet computers will eventually replace. Tablets and touch screen computing will be the future of portable computing. Bill Gates believes it, Steve Jobs believes it, and I believe it.

The world doesn't need an Apple tablet, or any other

January 3, 2010