Here is a summary of the general strengths and weaknesses of Raptors management over the last 10 years, using the benefit of hindsight to note possible major successes and mistakes.
Foresight And Future Of Raptors
- Idea - Raptors management, scouts, and analysts have had outstanding foresight
Because the Raptors management, scouts, analysts, and coaches have done such an amazing job selecting and developing players, the Raptors should still have a good team this year and going forward, even after losing VanVleet in free agency. Overall, the Raptors have had an otherworldly level of decision making, player development, and culture creation in the last 10 years. The Raptors have nailed and appropriately developed more lower draft picks they have made than possibly every other team, not to mention undrafted players. That, along with many other reasons, is why they have the second most wins of any team in the NBA over the last 10 years, while enjoying an incredible run from 2013-2023. The Warriors are the team with the most wins, and it took the Raptors beating them in the Final to get the Raptors their championship.
As I see it, the Raptors and Ujiri have had amazing foresight and good decision making in some general areas from 2013-2023. These areas which have traditionally been great strengths include:
- Reset Trades - Trading away a poor contract or player to improve - Anthony, Bargnani, Gay
- Like Trades - Making trades for key players who they like - Ibaka, Leonard, Trent, Poeltl
- Rebuilding - Rebuilding and growing a lower ranked team from scratch with no stars
- Developing - Developing all players well beyond their expected ability and value
- Drafting - Drafting good players who they like - Wright, Siakam, Anunoby, Barnes
- Signing - Signing undrafted and free agent role players who they like - VanVleet, Boucher
- Patience - Being patient while players and the team go through ups and downs
- Chemistry - Creating a culture of team chemistry, working together, and having fun
Foresight Improved With Hindsight
- Idea - Raptors management can be better by improving key weaknesses and mistakes
The fact that the Raptors have been such a good organization with exceptional player development and decision making overall does not mean that big mistakes have not been made, or that the team could not be situated much better for the present and future without those key mistakes. Firstly, I wonder if the Raptors have done a poor job seeing when they should trade away good players they like for future young players and picks. Their inability to make trades for the future is highlighted by what I see as two of the biggest asset management mistakes that the team has made from 2013-2023, with Lowry and VanVleet, which I write about in detail below. Secondly, I wonder if the Raptors have not capitalized on their excellent development of players and depth by trading away multiple players for a great player or future star player. They did accomplish this at least once, with solid results, with the trade of Valanciunas, Wright, and Miles for Gasol. However, they could have more often used their depth to take a gamble by trading 2, 3, or 4 players away to get 1 or 2 great or potentially great players for today or the future.
I might be wrong, but I wonder if these two general weaknesses, along with a couple of the major mistakes resulting from them, have significantly weakened the current and future potential of the Raptors team from what it could have been. The Raptors organization has had many more strengths and good decisions as opposed to weaknesses, poor decisions, and indecisions in the era from 2013-2023. However, the Raptors could have capitalized much better on their strengths of growing, developing, and drafting players if they had traded their good players that they liked in Lowry and VanVleet at the proper time, for some good young players and draft picks. They also could have used their strengths of developing, drafting, and depth to trade away multiple good players they like for a great player or future star player. Having patience is to be lauded, but indecision or inaction at the wrong times can also lead to poor results as well. Sometimes only hindsight allows one to reveal and recognize true weaknesses and mistakes which one can improve on to get better in the future.
As I see it, the Raptors and Ujiri have had some major mistakes, poor decision making, and indecision or inaction in some general areas from 2013-2023. These areas, which may have been weaknesses and could possibly be improved in the future, include:
- Future Trades - Trade players they like for great young players and picks - Lowry, VanVleet
- Depth Trades - Trade multiple players from depth into a great player or future star player
Hindsight And Mistake #1 - Lowry
- Idea - Raptors should have traded Lowry in 2020 offseason
The Raptors had a great 2019-2020 season. Masai decided that the team would "Run it back" before the season began. Lowry and VanVleet started together, which appeared to be a good decision by Nick Nurse, as VanVleet was a superior player to Powell and it allowed a great amount of ball handling and passing in the lineup, along with Siakam and Gasol. The team was exceptional again, even though they had lost Kawhi.
After this season, the Raptors should have started to move on a bit to the younger group and trade Lowry in the offseason. VanVleet was clearly ready to be the starting point guard, and Lowry and VanVleet were not the best pairing for another full season anyway. Lowry had a bounce back year points wise since Kawhi was gone, and was coming off being a 6-time straight All-Star at about age 33, so the Raptors could have gotten some good players and picks for him with a full year left on his contract. By trading Lowry's big contract for young players and picks, the Raptors could have signed and kept a center in either Ibaka or Gasol. In that way, they could have moved on from the older Lowry and Gasol, but still kept a center with experience and a good team together, but be younger and with some draft assets or young players built up by trading their star player in Lowry.
The lineup, not even including any great young player the Raptors might have gotten for Lowry, could have looked something like VanVleet, Anunoby, Siakam, Boucher, Ibaka. Or VanVleet, Powell, Anunoby, Siakam, Ibaka. Both Powell and Boucher had amazing seasons in 2019-2020 and were pushing to be starters. Boucher actually led the team in Win Shares according to Basketball Reference in the upcoming 2020-2021 season, an amazing feat, playing 24 minutes a game off the bench. I proposed an unlikely trade where the Raptors might have gotten the 2nd and 3rd picks in the draft for Lowry, and also suggested they take LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton with the picks, as an example.
What I have heard many people say and report is that the Raptors could not get much for Lowry at the 2020-2021 deadline, so they decided against trading him. I agree. I'm suggesting the mistake was not that Lowry was not traded at the deadline, but that the Raptors should have had the foresight to trade him in the previous offseason, a year before he was actually traded. Star players should be traded in the offseason, and older players should be traded before their value is diminished. Often this will be when the player has one year remaining on their contract, as was the case with Lowry.
Raptors 2020 and future strategy and lineup
Hindsight And Mistake #2 - VanVleet
- Idea - Raptors should have traded VanVleet in 2022 offseason
The Raptors had a solid bounce-back 2021-2022 season, finishing strong to get into 5th spot in the East, after finishing 12th the previous year. Barnes won rookie of the year and VanVleet was an All-Star for the first time. Siakam, who missed the start of the season with shoulder surgery, made an All-NBA team.
Before the start of the 2021-2022 year, Doug Smith wrote what seemed to be a very credible and informed piece in the Toronto Star after the Kyle Lowry trade. It laid out what appeared to be a vision for the future of the team, saying "They'd like a team of young, athletic players who are interchangeable for the most part, in a game growing more positionless by the season, and it’s a process to put that in place. Not a quick process, either, despite the sense that free agency began and ended in the first 36 hours."
After this season, the Raptors should have continued with their vision and traded VanVleet in the offseason, especially after he did not sign an extension immediately. VanVleet was coming off being an All-Star for the first time, increasing his value a fair amount. So again, like Lowry two years before, if the Raptors had the foresight to trade VanVleet in that offseason, they could have picked out and gotten some good young players or picks that they were interested in for him.
I do want to mention that there was another option in this current 2023 offseason which was available and could have allowed the Raptors to get value for one of their star players without losing them for nothing. If the Raptors did want to end up paying and keeping VanVleet instead of Siakam, maybe because he was such a great shooter and leader, they probably still could have. Instead, they could have proactively chosen to trade Siakam this offseason, possibly before free agency, freeing up money to sign VanVleet. In trading Siakam they likely could have gotten a better trade and assets and traded away the weaker shooter, so there were also positives for choosing VanVleet over Siakam.
Instead though, they chose not to trade Siakam in order to keep VanVleet instead. Then they ended up letting VanVleet walk this year, instead of choosing to trade him a year ago in the offseason, when they could have capitalized on his All-Star year and had the foresight to see they might not be able to keep him after he did not sign an extension right away in the 2022 offseason.
The Kyle Lowry deal will set off a chain reaction
