Category: 🙂 Human

I wonder if more NBA rules created to discourage rebuilding and tanking results in "perverse incentives", and that reversing course to completely remove both the draft lottery and play-in tournament might be the simplest, best, or most natural order.

Draft

• Flagg 1 (12th Last)
• Risacher 1 (10th Last)
• Wemby 1, Harper 2, Castle 4
• Cade 1, Ausar 5, Ivey 5
• Tatum 3, Brown 3, Smart 6
• Wade 5, *James 1, *Bosh 4
• Jordan 3, Pippen 5, Grant 10
• Magic 1, Worthy 1, *Kareem 1

While the current NBA rule changes with the draft lottery and play-in tournament, as well as any further flattening of the draft lottery odds or other rule changes, are an attempt to combat a team rebuilding with homegrown talent and tanking or losing some games some years, it's possible the effects of these changes are worse and with other unexpected and negative consequences and natural reactions by teams that we have seen. It may be that great teams of the present and past had often naturally rebuilt to get one or two high draft picks or the possibility of a star player, and then they would go on to win or try to win for many years, including many of the top ranked, successful, and championship level teams of the past.

When you reward higher ranking and mid-level teams with an opportunity to both make the playoffs with the play-in tournament going to 10 teams and only 6 teams making it for sure, or get the number 1 pick in the draft with the randomized lottery draft odds, you may have incentivized even those mid-level teams to want to lose games, sit top players, trade franchise players like Doncic, miss the playoffs or play-in tournament on purpose, or make other decisions if they could get a #1 or top pick, or improve their odds for themselves by finishing 14th, or 12th, or 10th, or 8th last in the standings. If you take this even further and create more rules, other unforeseen perverse incentives may result, such as the current rich teams getting even richer or teams not having an opportunity to rebuild naturally, or other unforeseen future consequences from any new rules creating potentially perverse incentives.

Instead, before you had the possibly unfair lottery draft and the possibly unfair play-in tournament, the very bottom teams might try to lose some games to improve their draft position and likelihood of getting a great player and that has always naturally been the case, and that doesn't appear to have changed. Also, it was clear that the teams with the best records over 82 games made the playoffs and teams knew if they made the top 8 they were a playoff team, instead of a much worse team who could have even more than 10 more losses than another team. On top of this, the mid-level teams who just missed the playoffs or who were trying to get better weren't as obsessed at losing some games because the odds of getting a franchise player with the 8th pick isn't much better than the 10th pick, like is the case if you could possibly get the 1st, 3rd, or 5th pick.

Furthermore, I have to add that I suspect it's quite possible that the NBA and its executives and owners might be particularly more upset today in 2026 at teams who might try to lose some games when they are at the bottom of the league or aren't a playoff team, which has likely been going on forever and with successful results since the 1950s, because of their recent decision to make money from gambling and betting, and the consequences lower and mid-level teams trying to lose some games or sit out players has for that. While a separate topic, I will briefly say that I at least hope and meditate for the current and future health and wellbeing of all of the referees, players, and coaches who may be very negatively affected by betting in the game as well as the countless people being negatively affected or becoming addicted to gambling which may ruin many people's lives and their children's lives, instead of enjoying the sport for the love of the game, because of the NBA's decision to allow rampant and pervasive betting to make even more excessive amounts of money, and the government's resistance to stop widespread legalized gambling by businesses such as the NBA up to this point.

Perverse Incentive - Wikipedia

When people say things like "This NBA team could finish 7th but not 5th", it doesn't make sense to me logically. In 24-25 West 3-8 was 2 games apart, in 23-24 East 2-8 was 4 games apart, in 22-23 West 4-10 was 3 games apart, in 21-22 East 6-10 was 3 games apart, etc.

Hey Jacob.

Great Evaluation And Analysis

• I think you really do a great job of evaluating players and coming up with different analysis or ideas for teams or players, to understand the value of players or make possible changes and adjustments.
• It's really fun to hear your thoughts on players or trades, and in particular I think your draft prospect bullet point breakdowns are an excellent example of that.
• In terms of evaluating players, one thing I think that I look at extremely differently than you is ages of players, and in particular young players who might be truly valuable or even untouchable, and also when players are going to be entering or in their prime.

Potential Of Young Players

• Lowry was 26, about 3 years older than Barnes is now, when he was traded to the Raptors and he wasn't that great of a player yet, being traded for a future first round pick.
• Masai didn't want to include the young Siakam or Anunoby in the Kawhi trade, and they were basically nothings on offense at about age 23 and 21 after each averaged about 7 points the previous year.
• Josh Giddey is still just 22 and he already shot 38% 3PT on 4 3PA this year while Caruso shot 35% on 3 3PA.
• James Harden was about 23 and playing on the bench for OKC the previous year when he was traded to Houston.
• Shai was a bit younger at about 21 when he was traded away after his 10 PPG rookie year along with a 20 PPG Danilo Gallinari and about 5 first round picks for a 28 year old Paul George.
• Barnes is just 23, already won rookie of the year, and has already been an All-Star, so he'll just be entering his age 24 season next year!

Trading Away Young Players

• Trading players like that who are under 25, who you drafted very high, who you could have as a franchise player for the next 10 years, and who could be a top 10 player in the NBA might not be wise at all, regardless of who you are trading them for.
• So I think you generally don't want to ever trade young players with All-NBA potential who haven't proven themselves like Harden, Shai, or Siakam, let alone young players who have already proven themselves to some degree like Doncic, Carter, or Barnes.
• Carter's rookie year he was already 22 by the way, a year younger than Barnes was this year.
• Also, on top of Barnes ability, he seems to already be a natural leader even at his extremely young age, which may be quite uncommon for such a young person, and certainly wasn't the case for players like DeRozan or Lowry at age 23 for instance.

Trading For Priming Players

• To go along with that, it can be worth realizing or wanting players who could potentially be top players in the NBA while entering and playing through their primes, which I see as age 27 to 33.
• Again, Barnes will still just be 24, so his prime might not even start for 3 years.
• In particular, it is worth noting that the Raptors have many young players now, while Giannis will be 31 next year.
• Even more importantly and really worth considering is that three of the biggest acquisitions of proven players by the Raptors were for Ibaka, Kawhi, and Ingram, who were all 27 when the Raptors traded for them.
• So, they were all just entering their prime years, and you could potentially have had them for at least 6 years of their whole prime, which was just starting.
• Meanwhile, Barnes and some other players on the Raptors like Quickley, Barrett, and Agbaji are younger and will be entering their prime in a couple years.

Consider Age And Potential

• When we look at trades or when we are evaluating players I think it is primarily important to always consider their age and potential first, instead of just comparing what players are in the deal now or how good they are now.
• In particular, I think it is worth knowing that 23 is still very young and that giving up anyone who has any potential to be one of the best players in the league when they enter their prime may not be wise at all.
• Also, it is worth considering that keeping, having, or getting players who could be one of the better players in the league when entering their prime at about age 27 may also be extremely valuable, and that getting players who are 32 or just past their prime may be much less valuable and not worth giving up these potential young and prime entering players for.

Amateur Hour Sports - Jacob's YouTube Channel

Here's a plan for the Raptors going forward, focused on getting all players who are the best 3PT shooters, deprioritizing great athletic defenders unless they'll shoot great too, and leave passing for the best passers on the team to setup 3PT shooters.

Strategy

TLDR - Shooting Yes, Defense Less, Passing Bests

• Build the team around everyone being a great shooter except for Barnes and Chomche
• So, focus less on defense, with defense being best possible only IF they can shoot great
• Put ball in hands of natural best passers like Barnes/Quickley, Mitchell/Mogbo for now
• So, focus less on everyone needing to pass in future, less turnovers, and 3PT specialists
• Keep PG/SG/SF/PF/C players who can be 40% 3PT shooters, defense 2nd skill hopefully
• Keep PF/C players who can be 35% 3PT shooters, defense 2nd skill important for C

Plan

TLDR - Lose This Year, Trade Poor Shooters, Get Great Shooters

• Lose for 1 year and get high 2025 draft pick
• Trade veterans and all poor shooters for young players/picks who are best shooters
• Play the young players more so you lose this year
• Make everyone take catch and shoot 3s, even Mitchell/Mogbo/Chomche/etc.
• Focus on getting the best young 3PT shooters
• Get best defense you can while having everyone shoot, and only great passers pass
• 2024 Raptors Draft Trade Idea

Shooting - Must Have 1st Skill (Upgrade defense after offense)

• I strongly believe that great shooters now win championships and are best players
• Lowry, Green, Kawhi, Gasol, VanVleet, Powell, Ibaka, Anunoby could all really shoot
• Getting young players for future who are exceptional shooters might be key
• The reason VanVleet was so undervalued was maybe his great 3PT shooting

Defense - Maybe Have 2nd Skill (Management likes too much?)

• Upgrade defense with 3-and-D players only after great offense with all 3PT shooters
• I wonder if team is again making mistake of too much defense, not enough shooting
• Defense is good to have, but not necessary for all players, and not if they can't shoot
• You likely only "need" 3 great defenders out there, one G, one F, and C or small ball C

Passing - Don't Need 3rd Skill (Coaching likes too much?)

• Leave the passing more to your best players, passers, and scorers, like Barnes/Quickley
• Not many players are great at 3 things, focus on shooting first, and defense second
• Focus on other players being great 40% 3PT shooters who take catch-and-shoot 3PTs
• You likely only "need" 2 great passers out there who can also score, one G and one F

Lineup - Current Depth Chart (Preferred Spots With Roster)

• PG - Quickley - Mitchell - Shead
• SG - Barrett - Dick - Temple
• SF - Brown - Walter - Mogbo
• PF - Barnes - Agbaji - Boucher
• C - Poeltl - Olynyk - Fernando
• 2W - Chomche - Battle - Carton

Keep - Keep Until Priceless/Worthless (Olynyk For Salary)

• Scottie Barnes - Want Scottie to be near worst 3PT shooter on team or top 9 players
• Immanuel Quickley - 40% 3PT shooter
• Ulrich Chomche - Potential 35% 3PT shooter big man
• Ja'Kobe Walter - Chance to be 40% 3PT shooter
• Gradey Dick - Chance to be 40% 3PT shooter
• Kelly Olynyk - Good shooter, and passing/veteran/Canadian/salary match are bonuses

Maybe - Keep But Maybe Trade Future (Play Now To ^ Value)

• RJ Barrett - Maybe trade for young 42.5% shooting PG and/or better 2-Way PF/SF 40%
• Davion Mitchell - Might not buy as 40% 3PT shooter, poor rebounder, good passer
• Ochai Agbaji - Might not buy as 40% 3PT shooter, like better at SG than SF, have SGs

No - Get Rid Of Or Trade Soon (Not Future Rotation Pieces)

• Jakob Poeltl - Can't shoot
• Bruce Brown - Not a good enough shooter
• Chris Boucher - Not a good enough shooter
• Bruno Fernando - Can't shoot
• Jamal Shead - Can't shoot, likely won't be 40% 3PT shooter, trade if gains any value
• Jonathan Mogbo - Can't shoot, Scottie's friend and upside like Barnes on the bench

Extra - Specific Player Notes (They're Good, But Shoot/Fit?)

• Agbaji - I like better at SG, and he's expendable with Barrett, Walter, Dick as SG scorers
• Shead - I get he'll push others in practice, but should even 3rd stringers be shooters?
• Poeltl - I get he's great, but I still don't like players who can't shoot at all, even at C
• Mitchell - Great trade, but I'd rather a 40% 3PT shooter who is next Quickley/VanVleet
• Mogbo - Could be awesome, but is playing Barnes and Mogbo together great shooting?
• Barrett - I like better at SG, and playing Barnes or a better 2-Way player/defender at SF

Update - November 19, 2024

• Moved Agbaji from No to Maybe - Has shown the potential to shoot 3PT, which is key
• Moved Mogbo from Maybe to No - Double down on requiring shooting over athletes
• Agbaji - He is the type of player wanted for defense, as long as could shoot 40% 3PT
• Mogbo - I resisted criticizing a recent high draft pick with such high potential initially
• Defense like Agbaji is still highly desired second, but only if they can shoot great first
• Passing like Mogbo is still very desired third, but only if they could shoot good first