Category: 📁 Tech Plans

Since the Apple Watch launched, it hasn't sold quite as well as some people thought it might. Here's my quick take on the key reasons why the sales for the Apple Watch might be lower than expected. From what I've read it sounds like it hasn't been as big of an initial success as the iPod, iPhone, or iPad. I wonder if the low sales could be boiled down to just one or two reasons, even though reviews focus on so many technical specifications and cool features.

The Apple Watch Is Simply Too Expensive

Like any tech product or gadget, the Apple Watch has been reviewed and analyzed excessively and in-depth. Every review has a different opinion about what features should make you want to get yourself an Apple Watch. Or conversely, reasons why it isn't worth buying or isn't selling well. Things like battery life or features that don't work perfectly.

And with a typical price of about $600 US, and a low price of $400 US, I think it is likely much too high of a price to reach any kind of mainstream adoption like we saw with the relatively low-priced iPods, iPhone, iPod Touch and iPad.

But often in the end, I think the large majority of regular consumers focus on price first. And the price of the Apple Watch might simply be too high over competing products, even in its lowest price version. So it might not matter that much if you need an iPhone to use all of the Apple Watch features, or how great the interface is, or even that the battery might not last long enough. While Apple can get people to pay a certain premium for their products, they also may need the price to be in the same vicinity of the products it is replacing or competing with.

And with a typical price of about $600 US, and a low price of $400 US, I think it is likely much too high of a price to reach any kind of mainstream adoption like we saw with the relatively low-priced iPods, iPhone, iPod Touch and iPad. While the smaller size is $50 less, it doesn't actually hit a significantly lower price point. Which leads me to the other reason why I think the sales of the Apple Watch haven't been as great as previous products.

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One thing that I didn't see mentioned in the newest rumors about the next iPad Mini is how much it will weigh. I have a feeling that the new iPad Mini could have its weight reduced significantly, to somewhere around 250 grams or lower. Maybe anywhere from about 220 to 260 grams. Here's how I came up with that number, along with my thoughts about the potential release date.

I figured this out from looking at the weights of previous iPads and previous iPod Touches.

iPad Mini 4 Weight

When Apple released the iPad Air, the WiFi version went down from the 650 gram iPad 4th gen to just 450 grams. Apple also reduced the weight of the iPod Touch over two generations from the 115 gram 3rd generation to the 88 gram 5th generation. The drop in weight for each was around 70-75%.

And now it looks like the next iPad Mini should be much thinner and have the same thinner design that the iPad Air and iPod Touch 5g used. So I wonder if the iPad Mini will go down in weight to 70-75% of the 330 gram weight of the iPad Mini 3rd generation. So somewhere around 250 grams or lower.

It would be amazing if they figured a way to get the iPad Mini to be under 200 grams. That would be asking too much I think. But I wouldn't doubt if Apple has thought about 200 grams as a target weight for the Mini. However, for this release I think getting it to under 250 grams is a more realistic possibility.

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I wonder if the rumour about the 12.9 inch iPad might not be the whole story, or even the correct story. There is a good chance the rumor is correct. However, here are a few possibilities I thought up of what Apple could do. Maybe this is more wishful thinking on my own part. Ideas that have been going on in my mind of what could happen next with iOS, tablets, laptops, and mobile computers.

As I mentioned in an earlier article, I think it's possible that smaller 8 and 7 inch tablets could become much more popular. If that happens, 10 inch and larger tablets could fall out of favour. Or more likely, the role of the laptop and tablet could change for some people, and merge into a single device. So, what are some other options of what the 12.9 inch iPad rumour could really be? And what are some options that Apple could consider in the future for the design of iPads, MacBooks, and other portable computers.

1. A New iPad With Built-in Keyboard. iBook?

Could it be possible that Apple has seen how popular keyboard accessories are for the iPad? Maybe they feel an extra accessory is a poor experience and they could offer a larger "iPad" which is actually a laptop? What I'm saying is this would not be either an iPad or a convertible tablet. It would simply be a laptop form factor with a keyboard that cannot be disconnected. A 13 inch laptop with a keyboard that runs iOS. It could be superlight. It would have crazy battery life. If they kept the same resolution it would still have a PPI of 200, which isn't perfect but is still much higher than laptops. They could even bring back the old name of the "iBook".

Separately, what if even though a keyboard was attached you could still stand the computer on its side to put it in portrait. You could swivel the keyboard backward and behind the device so it stands up with the display facing you. The keyboard would be at the rear of the device and turned off. You could kind of lay it in your lap in portrait mode too. Maybe it would allow the full yoga form factor where you can also swivel it all the way around. Though I bet Apple might not do that unless they had a second LCD where the keyboard normally is so it doesn't feel weird holding it with the keys facing out. I wouldn't expect an LCD keyboard/touchpad with better predictive text input at this point yet.

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Steve Jobs was quoted as saying 'I think PCs are going to be like trucks. Fewer people will need them.' It seems to be happening. However, in my mind there has been a significant evolution of the tablet landscape in the first 4 years since the iPad's introduction. And I believe this may have a bigger impact than we currently realize on what role tablets and PCs will play for people in the future, and what other PCs or devices we may use.

It might be obvious at this point, but to me it's looking more and more like tablets that you can easily hold in one hand will become the future of tablets, while larger tablets will merge with laptops and also include a detachable or even an attached keyboard. This means tablets of about 8 or 9 inches, but not nearly as wide as the original 9.7 inch iPad. And certainly not larger screen sizes of 12 or 14 inches that are used for laptops with keyboards built-in. Instead, these larger 10 to 14 inch tablets will merge with laptops, while tablets of 8 or 9 inches will really be the largest pure tablet size. Again, phones and pure tablets will be devices you can hold comfortably in one hand. Larger "tablets" or laptops will more likely include a keyboard, unlike the original 9.7" iPad.

If this happens, it could mean that a tablet may not be as good at completely replacing a PC or laptop as some people were hoping. Basically, as smaller tablets become more popular, it becomes more likely that more people may also need a laptop or desktop PC with a keyboard, even if it also includes a touch screen like a tablet. Meaning, the small tablet may not be their only device, and may not have a large enough screen and keyboard to do everything they need their main computer to do.

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Even though we get used to the fast paced way that software gets updated, it can be hard to understand at times. Sometimes I look at some decisions on software support and wonder why it's so different than other industries. I wonder why it has to continue to move so quickly and not allow for standards that can be agreed upon or last long enough to become common, platforms that exist for more than about 3 years, devices that exist for more than about 2 years, or software that exists in a similar form for more than about 1 year. For instance, the following.

Google Apps has dropped support for IE9. IE 9 was released on March 14th, 2011, just 2 and a half years ago. IE9 isn't even installed on Windows 7, but is an upgrade to IE 8. And Windows 7 is the most used OS in the world and was released on October 22nd 2009, just 4 years ago. What this means is that over 90% of the people who have a PC or notebook need to update their built in web browser to run Google Apps. Forget about people on even older operating systems like Windows XP, who can't update their browser to IE 10.

I understand that software within an OS, and even an OS can often be updated easily and freely. And even operating systems are now being updated freely and somewhat easily in many cases. Both Windows Update and App Stores on mobile devices were great advances in the software industry. But why is everyone being "forced" to update so quickly?

Being a tech junkie and software developer I like new features, getting new software, and playing around with cool new apps. But even for me, the speed at which software is getting updated is now creating more negatives than positives in many cases.

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• I think Apple might have messed up with the new design of the iPhone 5 and iPod Touch.
• The one thing they really needed to update after 5 years was the screen size, and I don’t think they did that correctly.
• It should have a 1280x720 screen from 4.3 to 4.6 inches and there should be no home button on the front.
• They needed to change the design and screen more, making the screen cover most of the device.
• The home button could be a button on the side.
• Yes it would hurt compatibility with old apps a bit more, but they would still run.
• And this is finally the device they made with a bigger screen.
• The new design feels half-hearted with just the longer 4.0 inch screen.
• They really needed to make a bigger change.
• And why not move to a more common resolution like 1280x720 when finally making the screen larger.
• A much larger screen covering most of the device and no home button is what they needed to do in my opinion.

Here are 5 predictions for Apple hardware and devices that could be released this year at various Apple events. I'm leaving out any thoughts about an Apple TV, partly because my guess is that it still might not come this year.

1. iPhone 5

Apple releases iPhone 5 in July with 4.6 inch screen and all new 1280 x 720 resolution display with new aspect ratio and curved glass. If they keep the same aspect ratio as the iPhone 4, the resolution would be something like 1200 x 800. Either resolution would have 300+ ppi display, which is similar to the iPhone 4. Previous iPhone apps would work at their original resolution covering only 3.5 inches of the screen and all new apps for iOS 6 would fill the screen. 4.0 inch display for the iPhone with the same 960 x 640 resolution is my second, more realistic guess, and much more likely.

2. iPod Touch 5G

iPod Touch released in September with same sized screen as iPhone 5 and a 3-5 megapixel camera. Possibly renamed to simply iPod. Likely won't happen but could finally get GPS and 3G version with some kind of data plan or new type of 3G plan that pleases carriers enough to make some money off iPod users while encouraging most people to still get an iPhone because of LTE or better and more powerful cell plan features.

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• If Apple does release a new 5-7 inch iPod Touch this Thursday I think it could have a resolution of 1920x1280.
• That would be double the current retina display. All of the iPhone apps would work on it, but not the iPad apps.
• A possible name for the device could be iBook, the name previously used for their consumer and education focused laptops in the early 2000s.
• If they release an iPod between 4-5 inches it will probable stick with the same 960x640 resolution.

This is a response to a great blog post by Joe Hewitt entitled Airplay TV.

Thoughts

• I agree that it won't matter if people have cable or DVDs in the future when the real IPTV comes, which looks to be more about apps on smart TV devices which could eliminate the need for a traditional set top box with "On Demand" or "IPTV" services.
• However, I wonder if Airplay isn't just a temporary solution, though a pretty good temporary one.
• The real improvement to some of the limitations he talks about may come with a new version of Apple TV that doesn't need Airplay and another iOS device to work, but just works on its own with its own user interface improvements.

That Apple TV May Have The Following

• A wand gyroscopic remote with trackpad.
• A version of iOS with an improved user interface which works with the remote from 10 feet away.
• Its own App Store for apps and games which work with the remote.
• Possibly a "TV" app that has a guide with content providers for live channels as well as previous archived shows for a price.
• Possibly a camera and microphone for FaceTime and Siri input as well.

The Wand Gyroscopic Remote May Have The Following

• A single power button to turn on the TV.
• Tilt up, down, left and right to highlight items on screen.
• Other waving gestures could perform different commands.
• Trackpad to perform clicks and other gestures with thumb.
• Possibly a touchscreen on opposite side of trackpad for keyboard, landscape game controls, and other controls when needed.
• Possibly remotes that include the touchscreen on the opposite side could be sold as an accessory since the cost would be more than with just a trackpad and people would need multiple gaming remotes.

Here are some predictions for what I think could be launched at Apple's next media event. Most likely Apple will have an event to announce some media hardware and software like iPods in the fall of 2010 sometime around September.

1. The Entry Level iPod Touch Will Become More Affordable At $150 Or Even $100

I think Apple wants to get everyone onto their iOS mobile devices which basically includes the iPhone and iPod Touch. The main reason for this is they can sell apps, games, books and other content on these devices and they can really only sell music on the older devices like the iPod Classic and iPod Nano. Because of this I think they will drop the price of the entry level iPod Touch even more. Of course this would cut into the price of the iPod Nano which I'll talk more about in a bit. The iPhone 4 may be quietly updated with a 64GB version replacing the 32GB version too.

• iPod Touch 3GS - 16GB - $150
• iPod Touch 4G - 64GB - $300
• iPod Touch 4G - 128GB - $400

2. The iPod Classic And Possibly The iPod Nano Will Be Discontinued

I think the iPod Classic will finally be discontinued since the iPod Touch will now have a flash hard drive with 128GB of memory. It's pretty remarkable as it will truly be the end of an era for the hard drive based iPods without a touch screen which started 9 years ago in 2001. I also think that eventually the iPod Nano will be discontinued. My guess is that once the base iPod Touch hits the price of the iPod Nano at $150 it basically makes the iPod Nano redundant. I think that may happen this year, and if not in 2011.

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This is a respone to an article titled 'The world doesn't need an Apple tablet, or any other', by Joe Wilcox of BetaNews.

It's an interesting article where he basically states that tablet computers can't become as popular as PCs, laptops, mp3 players, and smartphones, because it is a niche product and is too much of a middle product between laptops and smartphones. He has some interesting points. Tablets have definitely had trouble becoming mainstream devices and part of that problem has been overlapping market segments and the fact people may not buy four separate computers including a desktop, laptop, tablet, and phone.

I disagree with his article though. The main reason that I believe tablets will succeed and become popular is because I think they will replace laptops for regular users. It's that simple. Eventually, a typical home user will have a desktop all in one computer, a tablet portable computer, and a mobile smartphone. They may have only one or two of them. So the addressable market is anyone who currently owns a laptop or netbook. Below are some points answering some of the questions he poses. These advantages that a tablet has over a laptop and other reasons are why I think Apple's tablet and other tablets will replace laptops and netbooks.

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