Primary - Great, draft for my team
- 1st - Flagg, Bailey, Bryant, Fleming, Wolf
- 2nd - Coward, Shulga, S. James
Secondary - Great, draft for some team
- 1st - Jakucionis, Essengue, Gonzalez, Clifford
- 2nd - Markovic, Lanier, Yang
Get help to make life better
Hey Jacob.
I think you really do a great job of evaluating players and coming up with different analysis or ideas for teams or players, to understand the value of players or make possible changes and adjustments. It's really fun to hear your thoughts on players or trades, and in particular I think your draft prospect bullet point breakdowns are an excellent example of that. In terms of evaluating players, one thing I think that I look at extremely differently than you is ages of players, and in particular young players who might be truly valuable or even untouchable, and also when players are going to be entering or in their prime.
Lowry was 26, about 3 years older than Barnes is now, when he was traded to the Raptors and he wasn't that great of a player yet, being traded for a future first round pick. Masai didn't want to include the young Siakam or Anunoby in the Kawhi trade, and they were basically nothings on offense at about age 23 and 21 after each averaged about 7 points the previous year. Josh Giddey is still just 22 and he already shot 38% 3PT on 4 3PA this year while Caruso shot 35% on 3 3PA. James Harden was about 23 and playing on the bench for OKC the previous year when he was traded to Houston. Shai was a bit younger at about 21 when he was traded away after his 10 PPG rookie year along with a 20 PPG Danilo Gallinari and about 5 first round picks for a 28 year old Paul George. Barnes is just 23, already won rookie of the year, and has already been an All-Star, so he'll just be entering his age 24 season next year!
Trading players like that who are under 25, who you drafted very high, who you could have as a franchise player for the next 10 years, and who could be a top 10 player in the NBA might not be wise at all, regardless of who you are trading them for. So I think you generally don't want to ever trade young players with All-NBA potential who haven't proven themselves like Harden, Shai, or Siakam, let alone young players who have already proven themselves to some degree like Doncic, Carter, or Barnes. Carter's rookie year he was already 22 by the way, a year younger than Barnes was this year. Also, on top of Barnes ability, he seems to already be a natural leader even at his extremely young age, which may be quite uncommon for such a young person, and certainly wasn't the case for players like DeRozan or Lowry at age 23 for instance.
To go along with that, it can be worth realizing or wanting players who could potentially be top players in the NBA while entering and playing through their primes, which I see as age 27 to 33. Again, Barnes will still just be 24, so his prime might not even start for 3 years. In particular, it is worth noting that the Raptors have many young players now, while Giannis will be 31 next year. Even more importantly and really worth considering is that three of the biggest acquisitions of proven players by the Raptors were for Ibaka, Kawhi, and Ingram, who were all 27 when the Raptors traded for them. So, they were all just entering their prime years, and you could potentially have had them for at least 6 years of their whole prime, which was just starting. Meanwhile, Barnes and some other players on the Raptors like Quickley, Barrett, and Agbaji are younger and will be entering their prime in a couple years.
When we look at trades or when we are evaluating players I think it is primarily important to always consider their age and potential first, instead of just comparing what players are in the deal now or how good they are now. In particular, I think it is worth knowing that 23 is still very young and that giving up anyone who has any potential to be one of the best players in the league when they enter their prime may not be wise at all. Also, it is worth considering that keeping, having, or getting players who could be one of the better players in the league when entering their prime at about age 27 may also be extremely valuable, and that getting players who are 32 or just past their prime may be much less valuable and not worth giving up these potential young and prime entering players for.
Amateur Hour Sports - Jacob's YouTube Channel
May 4, 2025
If the Raptors end up getting Cooper Flagg in the NBA draft and keep Poeltl, then I think they should move Poeltl to the bench and start Flagg or Barnes at center, with the goal of getting more shooting into both the starting lineup and the bench.
Life always throws you some curveballs, like when you're watching an episode of American Idol and listening to many amazing vocalists, but then the son of one of the Backstreet Boys wows you with the most artistic, lyrical, original, and impressive performance of the show so far.
I organized my entire music library so that every album now has either 2, 4, 6, or 8 singles or picks in it. Believe it or not, I don't think I have OCD, butΒ it was incredibly rewarding and worthwhile nonetheless.
Please don't judge me that my new favorite music radio station is Underground 80s on SomaFM, where they play some great upbeat classic pop tunes, which is an unusual new obsession for me and a genre of music I hadn't listened to much previously.
Here's a plan for the Raptors going forward, focused on getting all players who are the best 3PT shooters, deprioritizing great athletic defenders unless they'll shoot great too, and leave passing for the best passers on the team to setup 3PT shooters.
TLDR - Shooting Yes, Defense Less, Passing Bests
TLDR - Lose This Year, Trade Poor Shooters, Get Great Shooters
I think Alperen Sengun should play the PF position alongside a defensive center. He is an offensive force and a great playmaker who fits better as a point forward that focuses on offense, and he is not a great defensive rim protector or a big rebounding center.
I think "Lion" or "The Lion" would be a great nickname for Scottie Barnes.
I wonder if Raptors may be too good to get high 2025 pick, especially with Poeltl/Brown/Boucher. Mitchell/Agbaji/Vezenkov/Olynyk are older. Mogbo/Shead/Carlson are older prospects who can play now. Dick/Walter are young but can shoot. Barnes/Quickley/Barrett are poised to breakout.
I've been watching and impressed with so many great new movies lately, that I sincerely enjoyed and heartily recommend. Challengers, Hit Man, Problemista, Suncoast, The Fall Guy, The League, LaRoy Texas (Violence), and Late Night With The Devil (Horror) are all excellent movies!
Here are my predictions for the 2023-2024 NBA standings, ranked by western and eastern conferences.
Here is a summary of the general strengths and weaknesses of Raptors management over the last 10 years, using the benefit of hindsight to note possible major successes and mistakes.
Because the Raptors management, scouts, analysts, and coaches have done such an amazing job selecting and developing players, the Raptors should still have a good team this year and going forward, even after losing VanVleet in free agency. Overall, the Raptors have had an otherworldly level of decision making, player development, and culture creation in the last 10 years. The Raptors have nailed and appropriately developed more lower draft picks they have made than possibly every other team, not to mention undrafted players. That, along with many other reasons, is why they have the second most wins of any team in the NBA over the last 10 years, while enjoying an incredible run from 2013-2023. The Warriors are the team with the most wins, and it took the Raptors beating them in the Final to get the Raptors their championship.
As I see it, the Raptors and Ujiri have had amazing foresight and good decision making in some general areas from 2013-2023. These areas which have traditionally been great strengths include:
The fact that the Raptors have been such a good organization with exceptional player development and decision making overall does not mean that big mistakes have not been made, or that the team could not be situated much better for the present and future without those key mistakes. Firstly, I wonder if the Raptors have done a poor job seeing when they should trade away good players they like for future young players and picks. Their inability to make trades for the future is highlighted by what I see as two of the biggest asset management mistakes that the team has made from 2013-2023, with Lowry and VanVleet, which I write about in detail below. Secondly, I wonder if the Raptors have not capitalized on their excellent development of players and depth by trading away multiple players for a great player or future star player. They did accomplish this at least once, with solid results, with the trade of Valanciunas, Wright, and Miles for Gasol. However, they could have more often used their depth to take a gamble by trading 2, 3, or 4 players away to get 1 or 2 great or potentially great players for today or the future.
I might be wrong, but I wonder if these two general weaknesses, along with a couple of the major mistakes resulting from them, have significantly weakened the current and future potential of the Raptors team from what it could have been. The Raptors organization has had many more strengths and good decisions as opposed to weaknesses, poor decisions, and indecisions in the era from 2013-2023. However, the Raptors could have capitalized much better on their strengths of growing, developing, and drafting players if they had traded their good players that they liked in Lowry and VanVleet at the proper time, for some good young players and draft picks. They also could have used their strengths of developing, drafting, and depth to trade away multiple good players they like for a great player or future star player. Having patience is to be lauded, but indecision or inaction at the wrong times can also lead to poor results as well. Sometimes only hindsight allows one to reveal and recognize true weaknesses and mistakes which one can improve on to get better in the future.
As I see it, the Raptors and Ujiri have had some major mistakes, poor decision making, and indecision or inaction in some general areas from 2013-2023. These areas, which may have been weaknesses and could possibly be improved in the future, include:
The Raptors had a great 2019-2020 season. Masai decided that the team would "Run it back" before the season began. Lowry and VanVleet started together, which appeared to be a good decision by Nick Nurse, as VanVleet was a superior player to Powell and it allowed a great amount of ball handling and passing in the lineup, along with Siakam and Gasol. The team was exceptional again, even though they had lost Kawhi.
After this season, the Raptors should have started to move on a bit to the younger group and trade Lowry in the offseason. VanVleet was clearly ready to be the starting point guard, and Lowry and VanVleet were not the best pairing for another full season anyway. Lowry had a bounce back year points wise since Kawhi was gone, and was coming off being a 6-time straight All-Star at about age 33, so the Raptors could have gotten some good players and picks for him with a full year left on his contract. By trading Lowry's big contract for young players and picks, the Raptors could have signed and kept a center in either Ibaka or Gasol. In that way, they could have moved on from the older Lowry and Gasol, but still kept a center with experience and a good team together, but be younger and with some draft assets or young players built up by trading their star player in Lowry.
The lineup, not even including any great young player the Raptors might have gotten for Lowry, could have looked something like VanVleet, Anunoby, Siakam, Boucher, Ibaka. Or VanVleet, Powell, Anunoby, Siakam, Ibaka. Both Powell and Boucher had amazing seasons in 2019-2020 and were pushing to be starters. Boucher actually led the team in Win Shares according to Basketball Reference in the upcoming 2020-2021 season, an amazing feat, playing 24 minutes a game off the bench. I proposed an unlikely trade where the Raptors might have gotten the 2nd and 3rd picks in the draft for Lowry, and also suggested they take LaMelo Ball and Tyrese Haliburton with the picks, as an example.
What I have heard many people say and report is that the Raptors could not get much for Lowry at the 2020-2021 deadline, so they decided against trading him. I agree. I'm suggesting the mistake was not that Lowry was not traded at the deadline, but that the Raptors should have had the foresight to trade him in the previous offseason, a year before he was actually traded. Star players should be traded in the offseason, and older players should be traded before their value is diminished. Often this will be when the player has one year remaining on their contract, as was the case with Lowry.
Raptors 2020 and future strategy and lineup
The Raptors had a solid bounce-back 2021-2022 season, finishing strong to get into 5th spot in the East, after finishing 12th the previous year. Barnes won rookie of the year and VanVleet was an All-Star for the first time. Siakam, who missed the start of the season with shoulder surgery, made an All-NBA team.
Before the start of the 2021-2022 year, Doug Smith wrote what seemed to be a very credible and informed piece in the Toronto Star after the Kyle Lowry trade. It laid out what appeared to be a vision for the future of the team, saying "They'd like a team of young, athletic players who are interchangeable for the most part, in a game growing more positionless by the season, and itβs a process to put that in place. Not a quick process, either, despite the sense that free agency began and ended in the first 36 hours."
After this season, the Raptors should have continued with their vision and traded VanVleet in the offseason, especially after he did not sign an extension immediately. VanVleet was coming off being an All-Star for the first time, increasing his value a fair amount. So again, like Lowry two years before, if the Raptors had the foresight to trade VanVleet in that offseason, they could have picked out and gotten some good young players or picks that they were interested in for him.
I do want to mention that there was another option in this current 2023 offseason which was available and could have allowed the Raptors to get value for one of their star players without losing them for nothing. If the Raptors did want to end up paying and keeping VanVleet instead of Siakam, maybe because he was such a great shooter and leader, they probably still could have. Instead, they could have proactively chosen to trade Siakam this offseason, possibly before free agency, freeing up money to sign VanVleet. In trading Siakam they likely could have gotten a better trade and assets and traded away the weaker shooter, so there were also positives for choosing VanVleet over Siakam.
Instead though, they chose not to trade Siakam in order to keep VanVleet instead. Then they ended up letting VanVleet walk this year, instead of choosing to trade him a year ago in the offseason, when they could have capitalized on his All-Star year and had the foresight to see they might not be able to keep him after he did not sign an extension right away in the 2022 offseason.
Here are my predictions for the 2022-2023 NBA standings, ranked by western and eastern conferences.
Here are my ideas and strategy for the potential lineup, depth chart, and final roster spots for the Toronto Raptors going into the 2022 season, now that they are heading into training camp.
This takes some points from the main ideas I previously noted in "Raptors 2022 offseason lineup changes", which I wrote shortly after the end of the season. They did follow a few of my ideas from that article already, including resigning Boucher, drafting a versatile and athletic center, and signing Champagnie to an NBA deal for now at least. And there have been some rumblings about Achiuwa having an increased role or even possibly starting as I had also crazily suggested.
We'll now see if Nurse and company makes any of the other suggestions this year in either this article or my previous one, including moving Trent to the bench, playing Koloko a lot, and playing Flynn more this year than last year. Of course Flynn will be in a battle with Banton and it could go either way. I could also see a trade happening like Birch, Flynn, and a second round pick for Cam Reddish. A smaller trade like that would open up a roster spot to keep both Jackson and Champagnie on the roster, and Dowtin as a 3rd point guard behind Banton.
I also like the signings of Porter, Hernangomez, and Jackson, and that they didn't commit to two years like they have previously with players of their ilk. Porter is worth the two years of course. I find it particularly interesting that they have added a ton of versatile and athletic height since trading Lowry at the start of the previous season. Achiuwa, Barnes, Banton, and Young came the previous season. And now they kept Young and Boucher this offseason and potentially add Koloko, Porter, Hernangomez, and Jackson to make 6 tall and versatile signings to their main roster this offseason. That would leave VanVleet, Flynn, and Trent as the only remaining guys under 6'7" and they now have much more height overall than just a couple of seasons ago.
Mirror, mirror on the wall, what is the fairest trade for all?
Here is a potential trade I like for the Raptors to get a player in the draft lottery this year. The Kings, Trail Blazers, Pelicans, and Wizards all might be teams they could potentially trade with to get Daniels, or someone else if they prefer.
Here are some other players I like for the Raptors in this year's draft. All of these are players I have picked out that could be good players worth picking, with a focus on defensive potential as much as offense.
Here is how I see the Raptors lineup if they could somehow add both Dyson Daniels and Dalen Terry. Beyond their top 10 players, they could keep Thaddeus Young possibly, or look to other free agents and undrafted players.
These ideas do not take into account future FA or trade upgrades.
Here are my thoughts and some potential trade options to be involved in a trade for Simmons currently.
* Note - Maybe Dragic and Boucher could be starters, with all our young guys playing together on the bench, to also boost Dragic's trade value and because Boucher is better than Birch.
** Note - Maybe Siakam or Barnes could actually play center, with Birch starting the year there as a solid player, but really being our 3rd string center later in the year when Siakam returns.
Thoughts
I think we want Thybulle instead of Maxey because he is a great defensive player with length like OG but at the 2-3 spots, similar to all the other players we like who are great defenders to start with. Contrary to the latest Raptors Digest video on September 2nd which says not to trade VanVleet, I think our deal almost certainly has to involve Fred. Why would the 76ers accept a deal with Gary Trent as the top player, unless they get Boucher as well as 4 first round picks and all young players? And that's a deal I don't think we want, just like we don't want to trade Siakam or Anunoby. Plus, I'm not sure we can include Trent in a deal before the season since we just signed him to a deal this offseason.
But our deal can now include Dragic, unlike my thoughts on trading VanVleet and Boucher earlier, before the NBA draft took place. And we can think of it like we traded Lowry but also got an extra guy we love in Achiuwa. We might be competing with a deal for CJ McCollum, who's a pretty good player and better offensively, on paper, and in the media than VanVleet, and he's also in the West where the 76ers don't compete against the Blazers. The fact that they could probably get McCollum is another reason why Gary Trent and Boucher likely won't cut it to make a deal.
In the big picture though, with our deal the 76ers get a lot of shooting which Morey likes with all of VanVleet, Boucher, and Dragic, while losing their two horrible shooters in Simmons and Thybulle. So it could be addition by subtraction and offer a lot of shooting while getting rid of their bad shooting. Plus Boucher is a great fit for them as a stretch four, as he is still extremely undervalued and a starting caliber player in this league in my opinion just like Norm Powell is. Boucher has been very high on PER both of the last two years, along with guys like Powell and Christian Wood before his deal with the Rockets. The 76ers can move Harris to small forward and have starters VanVleet, Curry, Harris, Boucher, Embiid and a bench of Dragic, Maxey, Green, Niang, Drummond. Green might start at SG obviously though.
We're in a decent position though, because the 76ers likely want to win now so they don't really want young players or picks like they might get in deals with San Antonio, Sacramento, Golden State, or other places. Plus if they want defense and winners they could like our guys, or particularly our main guy in VanVleet, better than guys like McCollum, Buddy Hield, or D'Angelo Russell. VanVleet to start and Dragic to play off the bench offers them a lot of playoff-tested defense, winning, experience, and passing to replace Simmons in order to win now. Plus they still get a good young player in VanVleet at point guard to make the trade look at least somewhat normal. Personally, I think VanVleet is a perfect point guard to fit with Embiid as well because he is a great shooter and leader, and because Embiid will get the ball more so you don't need a pass first point guard like Simmons, Chris Paul, or Kyle Lowry.
The above trade would be the most we might offer, but we might get it done for just 3 of those assets, or without Thybulle for as little as two of those assets. But I still think VanVleet almost certainly has to be the centerpiece to get a deal done likely at the very least, and I don't think we want to do a deal if it includes Anunoby or Siakam. To make the salaries match in order to get Dragic, I think the 76ers have about an $8 million trade exception from the Horford deal, which might even expire as soon as September 7th, or possibly later in the year.
The lineups proposed by me are based on two possible deals, one where we keep Dragic and don't get Thybulle. If we could keep Boucher and just give up VanVleet, Dragic, and a 1st round pick that would be the best deal we could hope for I think, but the least likely for the 76ers to accept probably, so I don't have a lineup based on keeping Boucher. The actual deal made from the list in my trade would depend on the 76ers and Raptors opinions on the values of Boucher, Thybulle, and the value of 1st round picks compared to those players.
Unlike many people who think Simmons isn't a good fit now without a starting point guard like VanVleet or Suggs, I'm actually higher on getting Simmons now than I was before the draft and getting Barnes. We can go all in on the strategy of defense, length, speed, and passing while developing all these guys shooting skills. Plus we still have some shooting in Siakam, OG, Flynn, Trent, Mykhailiuk, Watanabe, Dekker, plus Barnes and Achiuwa who do show potential to improve quickly. We could even possibly keep Dragic for our starting point guard for this year, with Flynn as a possible replacement in the future too.
But imagine how many rebounds we can get and how great the defense could be if we do leave Simmons and Barnes as big guards eventually, and decided that Siakam could play center if that's the case, instead of the skinny Boucher. Boucher could start at power forward if we are able to keep him instead of Dragic, and we would have 5 guys who are about 6'9" or taller who are pretty good players who can guard multiple positions. A lineup of Simmons, Barnes, Anunoby, Boucher, and Siakam would have a lot of potential, or even a lineup with Achiuwa at center instead of Boucher at power forward if Achiuwa's shooting improves enough in a year or two. If it's not enough shooting and we lose Boucher we can still have Trent, Flynn, or Dragic in there with a lineup like Simmons, Trent, Anunoby, Barnes, and Siakam.